Super Sunday

Arsenal vs Man Utd

Always a great game to look forward to due to the long running rivalry between the two teams and managers.

Arsenal

Inconsistent would probably be the most appropriate adjective to describe the Gunners this season. A stuttering start that culminated with the infamous 8-2 defeat at Old Trafford followed closely by a sustanained unbeaten run. However, recently they have lost two games to lesser opposition from winning positions as well as drawing two home games they really should be winning.

I have mentioned previously the importance of Vermaelen to this Arsenal team and this applies equally to tomorrow's game. He is a major doubt and will face a late fitness test. Without him the Arsenal back line is shaky at best.

Not only is the defence weak but they will miss the influence of Arteta in midfield and the creativity of Gervinho out wide. Theo Walcott is struggling for goals and the continued reliance on Van Persie is a dynamic that cannot be successfully maintained.

Manchester United

Without impressing, United have done enough so far this season to be within three points of City. Their away form has been a vital factor in this and they have only conceded six on their travels (three of those were at St James recently).

I feel the attacking threat of Nani and Valencia down the flanks along with Rooney down the centre will cause enough problems for the frail Arsenal back line and they will be able to secure a slim margin victory in this game. Both wingers will relish coming up against Djourou and Miguel and it would not surprise me if either gets on the score sheet or provides the pivotal assist.

Coupled with the return of Smalling and Jones in defence, United should provide too much of an obstacle for Arsenal to overcome and there is definite value in the 13/8 available

Selection

2 points Man United win @ 13/8


Manchester City vs Tottenham

Starting with Spurs, they have struggled for goals recently as discussed in the "Swansea vs Spurs" thread. They will also be missing Adebayor due to the loan terms. However, it is primarily the change in the City camp that has created the value in the game.

The tactical performance of Mancini in City's last game against Wigan was a significant point from a betting perspective. During the latter stages of the game, at one nil up, Mancini adopted a defensive stance bringing on De Jong to close the game out. There is nothing wrong with this approach but it is notable due to the value opportunities it should provide. Putting this into perspective, this is the same City side that were averaging over three goals a game earlier in the season. They are now just seeing out games against a bottom of the league Wigan that can't buy a goal!

I can see this being a tense affair as both teams will be keen not to give anything away and if City get a goal Mancini will again look to protect their lead. Because of this, there is value to be found in the unders.

Selection

2 Points on Under 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 General

Update

Quick blog bankroll update this evening. Following the last two successful under 2.5 bets we are now at a running total of £1258.15.

Some of the more eagle eyed followers of the blog will notice my penchant for the unders bet. I think it is a bet that your average punter will often over look. Casual bettors will punt on events they want to watch and usually they would like an exciting game. Therefore, the overs is the more popular. Bookmakers are aware of these behavioural patterns and you can often extract value by taking the other side.

The Weekend

We have a stellar weekend of football to look forward to with a couple of key title battles on Sunday. I'll be dissecting both of those games and posting two value selections tomorrow.

Newcastle vs QPR

 

Newcastle United are coming off the back of an impressive 3-0 home win against Manchester United. They currently sit seventh in the table and are just four points off a Champions League spot after twenty games. The exploits of star striker Demba Ba has elevated them to the echelons of European hopefuls this season.

 

However, Ba has just departed for the African Nations along with key midfielder Cheik Tiote. They will also be missing club captain Stephen Taylor at centre back who is out injured for the remainder of the season.  Therefore, Newcastle enter into this game missing what is arguably the spine of their team and three of their best players. As we saw with Manchester City in the midweek Carling Cup game, it is an almost impossible task for a team to maintain their highest performance levels whilst missing so many crucial players. This will be the challenge for Newcastle over the next few weeks, starting with the game on Sunday.

 

If we turn our attention to the visitors, QPR, we see a club whose fortunes may be about to turn. Situated near the foot of the table, just a solitary point above the relegation zone, the board decided to relieve Neil Warnock of his managerial duties and replace him with Mark Hughes. Whenever a team brings in a new manager with a reputation like Hughes, as punters, we must be aware of the “bounce factor” this can give to a team. Training is transformed, enthusiasm and confidence returns to the team and results inevitably improve. The recent appointment of Martin O’Neil at Sunderland is a perfect example of this. Unfortunately, it may not be plain sailing for Hughes from day one due to the absences in midfield of the suspended Joey Barton and Alejandro Faurlin through injury. However, QPR have shown a relative strength away from home winning more games on their travels than at Loftus Road this season. This shows us that the squad does not mind playing on the road and facing a weakened Newcastle team, they will be fully motivated to pick up their first points under Hughes’s stewardship.

I would have thought Hughes will adopt a cautious approach for his first game in charge due to the distinct lack of firepower up front. He will be aware that Newcastle will pose less of threat going forward without Ba and will be confident of defending well against the muted threat of the home team. This would be akin to the style he adopted when taking over at Blackburn Rovers, who were also battling relegation at the time of his arrival.

I think Newcastle are overpriced after we take into account their absentees. I also feel there is value in Under 2.5 goals due to the lack of firepower in both teams.

 
Selection

2 points on Under 2.5 Goals @ 13/14 with 188bet