Apologies, it won't be an extensive post this week as I'm off out to a game today. However, I think this one is too good to ignore.
10/11 on a Chelsea win.
Both teams played midweek so no advantage either way there. Chelsea in good form, Spurs the opposite.
Selection
2 points on Cheslea win @10/11 Various Books
Saturday, 24 March 2012
Wednesday, 21 March 2012
Manchester City vs Chelsea
A much improved Chelsea performance against Napoli saw the bankroll back to £1321.15 last week. We are entering the last quarter of the season and things are really starting to get interesting domestically and in Europe.
ROI for the blog currently stands at 36.45% and growth of 32.12%. This is slightly above expected, however, we are working with a select and small sample size.
This week we are again looking at Chelsea, as they line up against City at the Eastlands.
Manchester City
The Blues stuttered in their last league game, losing away to Swansea, as the home team managed a rare clean sheet against the title challengers. However, City's home form in the league currently reads P14 W14. They are formidable on their home turf and the expected return of Vincent Kompany to partner Kolo Toure at the back will be a welcome boost.
In the forward line, the movement of Aguero and Silva, complemented by the well timed runs of Yaya Toure has caused even the most stringent of defences problems this season. It is no surprise that they have averaged three goals at game at home in the league.
Chelsea
Although Chelsea have looked a rejuvenated side under the guidance of Di Matteo, I feel the test of an away game against City has come too early for them. The absence of Terry from their central defence is a critical factor. This will shift the burden of keeping out the City front line onto the shoulders of Luiz and Cahill. These are two players of undoubted talent, however, they do not look solid enough as a pairing against intelligent forward lines.
Couple these points with the fact Chelsea have only had two full days to prepare for this game after their FA Cup tie on Sunday and you begin to realise that the price about a City win is definite value.
They were 8/11 at home to Arsenal and won & 8/11 at home to Spurs and won (albeit with a last minute penalty). I do not perceive Chelsea to be stronger than either of those teams in their visit to the Eastlands.
Selection
3 Points on Man City Win @ 19/20 with VC Bet
The key for me in this game will be the announcement of Kompany in the City starting eleven. If he does not start I will reduce the stake by 2/3 to 1 point as Savic does look very indecisive at times.
As always, I welcome any comments, good luck with your value betting!
ROI for the blog currently stands at 36.45% and growth of 32.12%. This is slightly above expected, however, we are working with a select and small sample size.
This week we are again looking at Chelsea, as they line up against City at the Eastlands.
Manchester City
The Blues stuttered in their last league game, losing away to Swansea, as the home team managed a rare clean sheet against the title challengers. However, City's home form in the league currently reads P14 W14. They are formidable on their home turf and the expected return of Vincent Kompany to partner Kolo Toure at the back will be a welcome boost.
In the forward line, the movement of Aguero and Silva, complemented by the well timed runs of Yaya Toure has caused even the most stringent of defences problems this season. It is no surprise that they have averaged three goals at game at home in the league.
Chelsea
Although Chelsea have looked a rejuvenated side under the guidance of Di Matteo, I feel the test of an away game against City has come too early for them. The absence of Terry from their central defence is a critical factor. This will shift the burden of keeping out the City front line onto the shoulders of Luiz and Cahill. These are two players of undoubted talent, however, they do not look solid enough as a pairing against intelligent forward lines.
Couple these points with the fact Chelsea have only had two full days to prepare for this game after their FA Cup tie on Sunday and you begin to realise that the price about a City win is definite value.
They were 8/11 at home to Arsenal and won & 8/11 at home to Spurs and won (albeit with a last minute penalty). I do not perceive Chelsea to be stronger than either of those teams in their visit to the Eastlands.
Selection
3 Points on Man City Win @ 19/20 with VC Bet
The key for me in this game will be the announcement of Kompany in the City starting eleven. If he does not start I will reduce the stake by 2/3 to 1 point as Savic does look very indecisive at times.
As always, I welcome any comments, good luck with your value betting!
Wednesday, 14 March 2012
Chelsea vs Napoli
Tonight's match provides another opportunity to take advantage of a team that has been continually mispriced against it's more fashionable (and often English) opposition in this year's Champions League.
Napoli visit the Bridge having outplayed Chelsea in the first leg and hold a 3-1 lead. Their coach stated they will look to play a high line and get the away goal. Napoli's strength in this competition has been their ability to get goals and they are yet to draw a blank in the CL.
I have mentioned in at least two previous picks, the strength of their front three and this is something that will be evident again against a Chelsea back line that has shown fallibility this season.
Time constraints due to Cheltenham mean I will not be going into depth about Chelsea as we know a lot about them already. For my tissue I have Chelsea odds against at 5/4 as I do not see them winning this game anywhere 55%+ of the time like most books have them priced.
Selections
1.5 Points Napoli +1 AH @ 10/13 188bet
&
1.5 Points Napoli +.5 AH @ 17/13 188bet
Napoli visit the Bridge having outplayed Chelsea in the first leg and hold a 3-1 lead. Their coach stated they will look to play a high line and get the away goal. Napoli's strength in this competition has been their ability to get goals and they are yet to draw a blank in the CL.
I have mentioned in at least two previous picks, the strength of their front three and this is something that will be evident again against a Chelsea back line that has shown fallibility this season.
Time constraints due to Cheltenham mean I will not be going into depth about Chelsea as we know a lot about them already. For my tissue I have Chelsea odds against at 5/4 as I do not see them winning this game anywhere 55%+ of the time like most books have them priced.
Selections
1.5 Points Napoli +1 AH @ 10/13 188bet
&
1.5 Points Napoli +.5 AH @ 17/13 188bet
Saturday, 10 March 2012
Update
The APOEL result was pleasing and is good example of how you can extract value from what can be perceived as the "unfashionable team".
That takes the blog bankroll to £1381.15 going into Cheltenham week. No bet today but could be one for Monday's game at the Emirates.
Tuesday, 6 March 2012
APOEL vs LYON
Nice to have a winning return with the Swansea pick at the weekend, adding another £50 profit to the blog bankroll.
This weeks Champions League pick focuses on what could probably be described as the lesser of the four ties.
APOEL
They have been the surprise package of this year's competition and will not be leaving the competition without a fight. Their home record has been impressive, they beat Wisla Krakow in qualification and went on to record victories against Zenit and Porto at home in the group stages. They only suffered defeat to Shaktar after qualification to the knockout stages was secured.
If we imagine the scenario that will take place, 22,000 Cypriot watching the first team in a Champions League knockout phase from their island trying to overturn just a one goal deficit, this will provide a tremendous lift to an already stubborn team. This momentum and motivation along with their existing defensive resilience mean that APOEL are a more attractive option for the win than Lyon.
Lyon
They are in poor form domestically, especially away from home, and will be apprehensive with just a one goal lead. Lyon have the advantage of having kept a clean sheet in the first leg and an away goal will make it very difficult for APOEL. However, Lyon have failed to score in their last two domestic away games and will find it hard to break that run against a well drilled APOEL defensive unit.
Predictably, the game has been priced to expect a tight affair (Draw at 2/1 & Under 2.5 is 8/13 in most places). However, I think the teams are mispriced and there is value in taking APOEL at 6/5 Draw No Bet.
I would have the respective prices the other way round and feel the value in APOEL is too good to ignore.
Selection
2 points on APOEL @ 6/5 Draw No Bet with Various Books.
This weeks Champions League pick focuses on what could probably be described as the lesser of the four ties.
APOEL
They have been the surprise package of this year's competition and will not be leaving the competition without a fight. Their home record has been impressive, they beat Wisla Krakow in qualification and went on to record victories against Zenit and Porto at home in the group stages. They only suffered defeat to Shaktar after qualification to the knockout stages was secured.
If we imagine the scenario that will take place, 22,000 Cypriot watching the first team in a Champions League knockout phase from their island trying to overturn just a one goal deficit, this will provide a tremendous lift to an already stubborn team. This momentum and motivation along with their existing defensive resilience mean that APOEL are a more attractive option for the win than Lyon.
Lyon
They are in poor form domestically, especially away from home, and will be apprehensive with just a one goal lead. Lyon have the advantage of having kept a clean sheet in the first leg and an away goal will make it very difficult for APOEL. However, Lyon have failed to score in their last two domestic away games and will find it hard to break that run against a well drilled APOEL defensive unit.
Predictably, the game has been priced to expect a tight affair (Draw at 2/1 & Under 2.5 is 8/13 in most places). However, I think the teams are mispriced and there is value in taking APOEL at 6/5 Draw No Bet.
I would have the respective prices the other way round and feel the value in APOEL is too good to ignore.
Selection
2 points on APOEL @ 6/5 Draw No Bet with Various Books.
Friday, 2 March 2012
Wigan vs Swansea
My apologies for the hiatus. However, I am now back with regular posts.
I will start with what could surprise as an exciting game over at the DW Stadium on Saturday.
Wigan
They have only won one in their last six games (against fellow strugglers Bolton) but are unbeaten in their last three games. Martinez has chosen to adopt a 3-5-2 formation recently with focus on the wing backs. They have struggled for goals all season and although they move the ball well at times, a lack of precision up front has often let them down.
Swansea
I think their passing style will play into the hands of Swansea who have impressed all season with their possession football. They have played some of the top four in the league and come out of those games with greater possession. Admittedly, their away form has not been as good as their home form but the DW is not the most intimidating of grounds and I feel Rodgers will see this as a game where they can get all three points.
The return of Vorm in goal is a huge boost for Swansea as not only does he bring great goalkeeping skills but also injects an enormous amount of confidence in their back four.
An expansive game would not surprise me here and odds against for the overs could provide some value. However, I think a better bet is taking Swansea on the Asian Handicap.
Selection
2 points @ 5/4 Swansea +0 A.H at 188bet (no bet if Vorm does not start)
I will start with what could surprise as an exciting game over at the DW Stadium on Saturday.
Wigan
They have only won one in their last six games (against fellow strugglers Bolton) but are unbeaten in their last three games. Martinez has chosen to adopt a 3-5-2 formation recently with focus on the wing backs. They have struggled for goals all season and although they move the ball well at times, a lack of precision up front has often let them down.
Swansea
I think their passing style will play into the hands of Swansea who have impressed all season with their possession football. They have played some of the top four in the league and come out of those games with greater possession. Admittedly, their away form has not been as good as their home form but the DW is not the most intimidating of grounds and I feel Rodgers will see this as a game where they can get all three points.
The return of Vorm in goal is a huge boost for Swansea as not only does he bring great goalkeeping skills but also injects an enormous amount of confidence in their back four.
An expansive game would not surprise me here and odds against for the overs could provide some value. However, I think a better bet is taking Swansea on the Asian Handicap.
Selection
2 points @ 5/4 Swansea +0 A.H at 188bet (no bet if Vorm does not start)
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