Well, what a fantastic game at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. It was an end to end affair as we thought it would be. The game could have gone either way as both defences were in such a charitable mood! However, it was Arsenal's forwards that were the more clinical. I was especially impressed with Theo Walcott and how he got the better of Ashley Cole. He then complimented his performance with that wonder goal.
Looking at the two selections that were put up for that game in the previous post, I am pleased the analysis of the style in which the game would play out was correct. I think think there was value in Chelsea and with some better finishing they could have been more than 2-1 up at half time and it would have been a long way back for Arsenal.
The game resulted in a £15 loss for the blog bankroll (£985).
Tonight's Premiership game is Stoke vs Newcastle.
The general thoughts from the prices available are that it will be a tight low scoring affair. However, with both teams having played midweek, performance levels could be below par. Both teams also have forwards that know where the goal is so it may be an "Over 2.5 goals" game.
That being said, I don't think there is any particular value in the prices available and will not be putting up a selection for this game.
With the Champions League this week there will be some better opportunities that present themselves.
This leads us to a very important point about successful Sports Betting/Trading - you do not have to enter the market all of the time!
As the bettor, we have the huge advantage of choosing when to place a bet/trade and when to sit things out and not bet. This patient and selective approach is half of the battle when attempting to generate a profit from sporting events. By protecting your capital and only seeking out value opportunites, you will find profits easier to come by.
Monday, 31 October 2011
Saturday, 29 October 2011
Chelsea vs Arsenal
The match that I am going to focus on from the Premier League fixtures on Saturday is the Chelsea vs Arsenal game. Traditionally a big game in terms of the title race, maybe not so this year because Arsenal are not genuine contenders. However, it will still be an exciting game to watch.
Let’s start with the managers. Villa Boas has been a breath of fresh air for the Premiership. I have enjoyed watching Chelsea this season and think their attacking approach will continue in today's game. Their forward line of three will probably contain Torres, Sturridge and Mata.
Wenger is also a footballing purist and has never been one to "park the bus" in his away games. It is likely Arsenal will line up with their 4-5-1, Van Persie leading the line flanked by Walcott and Gervinho.
The good form of RVP at the moment is unquestionable and his skill will cause the Chelsea centre backs problems. However, I think Cole and Boswinga will be able to handle the threat of Walcott and Gervinho respectively.
The probable midfield line ups seem closely matched in skill levels and physique. Song vs Ramires, Arteta vs Lampard and Meireles vs Ramsey, some interesting and closely fought match ups.
That leaves us with the Chelsea front three versus the Arsenal back line. At this stage it seems as though Djourou and Santos will start as full backs and Koscielny/Vermaelan and Mertesacker. Those two full backs can be liabilities for Arsenal and Chelsea will be looking to exploit this. If Vermaelan starts that is a huge plus for Arsenal because he will thrive against the style of Torres. However, with this a doubt i think Arsenal will be up against it tomorrow.
Recommendation = 3pt win Chelsea @ 7/10 and 3pt win Both teams to score @ 3/4
Let’s start with the managers. Villa Boas has been a breath of fresh air for the Premiership. I have enjoyed watching Chelsea this season and think their attacking approach will continue in today's game. Their forward line of three will probably contain Torres, Sturridge and Mata.
Wenger is also a footballing purist and has never been one to "park the bus" in his away games. It is likely Arsenal will line up with their 4-5-1, Van Persie leading the line flanked by Walcott and Gervinho.
The good form of RVP at the moment is unquestionable and his skill will cause the Chelsea centre backs problems. However, I think Cole and Boswinga will be able to handle the threat of Walcott and Gervinho respectively.
The probable midfield line ups seem closely matched in skill levels and physique. Song vs Ramires, Arteta vs Lampard and Meireles vs Ramsey, some interesting and closely fought match ups.
That leaves us with the Chelsea front three versus the Arsenal back line. At this stage it seems as though Djourou and Santos will start as full backs and Koscielny/Vermaelan and Mertesacker. Those two full backs can be liabilities for Arsenal and Chelsea will be looking to exploit this. If Vermaelan starts that is a huge plus for Arsenal because he will thrive against the style of Torres. However, with this a doubt i think Arsenal will be up against it tomorrow.
Recommendation = 3pt win Chelsea @ 7/10 and 3pt win Both teams to score @ 3/4
Thursday, 27 October 2011
An Introduction
Hello to all you Sports Traders/Speculators/Bettors,
A brief introduction to get us started:
I've been involved in the industry of Sports Betting in some shape or form for nearly a decade now. Currently I am in-play trading, placing bets pre match and also doing some long term outrights (aka Futures for our U.S cousins).
I thought it was about time that I aired some of my insights in a public forum such as "blogger.com". This has been coupled with me posting some selections over at http://www.olbg.com/ (for those that aren't already aware this is a great betting/tipping forum) under the pseudonym of "thevaluehunter" in the Football and Rugby sections.
The blog could well be an interesting read for beginners and experts alike. Naturally, I will be hoping to gain insights from any followers as well. The mutual circulation of knowledge is something that can benefit us all! There will be the occassional non-sport musing but the core of the blog will involve the evaluation of opportunities resulting in selections and recommendations.
For the sake of the blog I will be attributing a £1000 bankroll with a staking plan of 1-5 points (5 pt = £100). The staking plan will increase with each additional £1000 we reach with the roll!
Methodology
The betting/trading involved will encompass pretty much all Sports and "Specials" where I perceive there to be an element of value based on the overall price available on the exchanges or with the layers. I feel there is a common misconception with the "average punter" that the bookies generally get their prices bang on and that is why they are in business........
Lets put pay to that myth! Bookmakers prices are derived to generate a balanced book and will never diverge much from Betfair prices (as they will immediately get smashed with Arbers on that one price if it is a liquid market!). In todays price transparent world it is public perception (this is a loose term in its nature and will differ for each event. I.e. Man Utd vs Man City will have a different "Public" than the 7.30pm at Kempton) that determines price.
Therefore, if we can analyse an event with an accurate evaluation that is greater informed than the existing public perception, we can find value in said event!
Markets
I prefer to look at the highest level of sports for three reasons:
1) The more mainstream the sport, the broader the "public perception" that generates that price and therefore, the greater opportunity to find value. You will also see sportsmen and women performing to win (minimising the chances of betting on a fixed event!).
2) These markets are liquid (£millions traded in an event)! Liquidity is crucial when trading as you do not want to be worried about liquidity when you are wanting to trade in and out at a certain price.
3) To coin an overused phrase, "information is power"! You can easily gather more statistical, qualitative and quantative information about a "Chelsea vs Arsenal" game than you can about "Peterhead vs East Fife" match. However, if you have inside information about the latter (or either games for that matter) then fantastic, get betting! But week to week the former is far more bettor friendly than the latter when doing your research.
And it is through these three pillars that led me to seeking out value based opportunities in high profile sporting events.
Tomorrow, we will take a look at the Premiership fixtures, F1 and X Factor to see what sort of value may lie in those events.
A brief introduction to get us started:
I've been involved in the industry of Sports Betting in some shape or form for nearly a decade now. Currently I am in-play trading, placing bets pre match and also doing some long term outrights (aka Futures for our U.S cousins).
I thought it was about time that I aired some of my insights in a public forum such as "blogger.com". This has been coupled with me posting some selections over at http://www.olbg.com/ (for those that aren't already aware this is a great betting/tipping forum) under the pseudonym of "thevaluehunter" in the Football and Rugby sections.
The blog could well be an interesting read for beginners and experts alike. Naturally, I will be hoping to gain insights from any followers as well. The mutual circulation of knowledge is something that can benefit us all! There will be the occassional non-sport musing but the core of the blog will involve the evaluation of opportunities resulting in selections and recommendations.
For the sake of the blog I will be attributing a £1000 bankroll with a staking plan of 1-5 points (5 pt = £100). The staking plan will increase with each additional £1000 we reach with the roll!
Methodology
The betting/trading involved will encompass pretty much all Sports and "Specials" where I perceive there to be an element of value based on the overall price available on the exchanges or with the layers. I feel there is a common misconception with the "average punter" that the bookies generally get their prices bang on and that is why they are in business........
Lets put pay to that myth! Bookmakers prices are derived to generate a balanced book and will never diverge much from Betfair prices (as they will immediately get smashed with Arbers on that one price if it is a liquid market!). In todays price transparent world it is public perception (this is a loose term in its nature and will differ for each event. I.e. Man Utd vs Man City will have a different "Public" than the 7.30pm at Kempton) that determines price.
Therefore, if we can analyse an event with an accurate evaluation that is greater informed than the existing public perception, we can find value in said event!
Markets
I prefer to look at the highest level of sports for three reasons:
1) The more mainstream the sport, the broader the "public perception" that generates that price and therefore, the greater opportunity to find value. You will also see sportsmen and women performing to win (minimising the chances of betting on a fixed event!).
2) These markets are liquid (£millions traded in an event)! Liquidity is crucial when trading as you do not want to be worried about liquidity when you are wanting to trade in and out at a certain price.
3) To coin an overused phrase, "information is power"! You can easily gather more statistical, qualitative and quantative information about a "Chelsea vs Arsenal" game than you can about "Peterhead vs East Fife" match. However, if you have inside information about the latter (or either games for that matter) then fantastic, get betting! But week to week the former is far more bettor friendly than the latter when doing your research.
And it is through these three pillars that led me to seeking out value based opportunities in high profile sporting events.
Tomorrow, we will take a look at the Premiership fixtures, F1 and X Factor to see what sort of value may lie in those events.
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