An Introduction

Hello to all you Sports Traders/Speculators/Bettors,

A brief introduction to get us started:

I've been involved in the industry of Sports Betting in some shape or form for nearly a decade now. Currently I am in-play trading, placing bets pre match and also doing some long term outrights (aka Futures for our U.S cousins).

I thought it was about time that I aired some of my insights in a public forum such as "blogger.com".  This has been coupled with me posting some selections over at http://www.olbg.com/ (for those that aren't already aware this is a great betting/tipping forum) under the pseudonym of "thevaluehunter" in the Football and Rugby sections.

The blog could well be an interesting read for beginners and experts alike. Naturally, I will be hoping to gain insights from any followers as well. The mutual circulation of knowledge is something that can benefit us all! There will be the occassional non-sport musing but the core of the blog will involve the evaluation of opportunities resulting in selections and recommendations.

For the sake of the blog I will be attributing a £1000 bankroll with a staking plan of 1-5 points (5 pt = £100). The staking plan will increase with each additional £1000 we reach with the roll!


Methodology

The betting/trading involved will encompass pretty much all Sports and "Specials" where I perceive there to be an element of value based on the overall price available on the exchanges or with the layers. I feel there is a common misconception with the "average punter" that the bookies generally get their prices bang on and that is why they are in business........

Lets put pay to that myth! Bookmakers prices are derived to generate a balanced book and will never diverge much from Betfair prices (as they will immediately get smashed with Arbers on that one price if it is a liquid market!). In todays price transparent world it is public perception (this is a loose term in its nature and will differ for each event. I.e. Man Utd vs Man City will have a different "Public" than the 7.30pm at Kempton) that determines price.

Therefore, if we can analyse an event with an accurate evaluation that is greater informed than the existing public perception, we can find value in said event!

Markets

I prefer to look at the highest level of sports for three reasons:

1) The more mainstream the sport, the broader the "public perception" that generates that price and therefore, the greater opportunity to find value. You will also see sportsmen and women performing to win (minimising the chances of betting on a fixed event!).

2) These markets are liquid (£millions traded in an event)! Liquidity is crucial when trading as you do not want to be worried about liquidity when you are wanting to trade in and out at a certain price.

3) To coin an overused phrase,  "information is power"! You can easily gather more statistical, qualitative and quantative information about a "Chelsea vs Arsenal" game than you can about "Peterhead vs East Fife" match. However, if you have inside information about the latter (or either games for that matter) then fantastic, get betting! But week to week the former is far more bettor friendly than the latter when doing your research.

And it is through these three pillars that led me to seeking out value based opportunities in high profile sporting events.

Tomorrow, we will take a look at the Premiership fixtures, F1 and X Factor to see what sort of value may lie in those events.