Critical Evaluation
A few thoughts on my betting/trading ahead of the new EPL season led me to come across this video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdR3g83lwdE&feature=related
There are a lot of familiarities between Sports Trading & Financial Trading, most notably the ability to critically evaluate situations and their probable outcomes better than the majority of the market. This is essentially how value is derived.
That means looking at games/performances/tactics on multiple levels and not just taking information on face value.
Within the video I particularly like the example of critical thinking when the Trader is discussing an OPEC meeting and he determines a decision will not be made when the market has priced in the fact that one will be made.
Watch and enjoy. Excuse the 80's production, the content makes it worthwhile.
Sunday, 5 August 2012
Thursday, 12 April 2012
Analysis
After watching the Swansea team in last night's game I got the distinct feeling that a long season had began to catch up with what is a relatively small premiership squad.
There were also rumours that there had been an illness in the club this week.
Either way, it resulted in a rare occasion where the Swans ceded more possession to their opponents (52% to 48%).
This brings us to a decision in our rating of Swansea for the next few games. Do we re-base their expected performance to a lower level or do we leave them at their current expected level and seek out further value opportunities for them to bounce back?
They face Blackburn at home next and are currently around even money with most books. This rates them as a slightly superior team. Both teams have lost their last four and will see this game as an opportunity to break that barren run.
I will look closer at that game and an FA Cup tie on Saturday.
In the meantime, good luck and happy value hunting!
There were also rumours that there had been an illness in the club this week.
Either way, it resulted in a rare occasion where the Swans ceded more possession to their opponents (52% to 48%).
This brings us to a decision in our rating of Swansea for the next few games. Do we re-base their expected performance to a lower level or do we leave them at their current expected level and seek out further value opportunities for them to bounce back?
They face Blackburn at home next and are currently around even money with most books. This rates them as a slightly superior team. Both teams have lost their last four and will see this game as an opportunity to break that barren run.
I will look closer at that game and an FA Cup tie on Saturday.
In the meantime, good luck and happy value hunting!
Wednesday, 11 April 2012
QPR vs Swansea ( with some "Regression to the Mean")
I was intrigued when I saw the prices for this game go up. The majority of books have QPR as the 6/5 favourites. This price for any home team is the general price given when two teams are deemed to be of equal ability + home advantage for one, giving the 6/5 favouritism.
However, I do not perceive Swansea and QPR to be of the same ability, hence the upcoming selection.
QPR
Rangers have been much improved of late with victories over Arsenal and Liverpool in recent weeks at Loftus Road. However, they still remain in a relegation fight and have not kept a clean sheet since their 1-0 victory of Chelsea back in 2011. As a team they seem to have an inability to put together any sort of consistency.
They have only had two rest days since their trip to Old Trafford and will not have had sufficient preparation for the upcoming fixture.
Swansea
In contrast to QPR, Swansea have recently gone through a slump in form that has seen them lose their last three games. However, in all of these fixtures (including an away game at White Hart Lane) they had the majority of possession without being able to push on and get something from the game. This shows that despite the poor results their technical ability and footballing philosophy has not faltered. Danny Graham and Scott Sinclair return to the line up tonight to add some accuracy in front of goal that will complement the skills of Sigurdsson playing in the hole.
Also in the Swans favour is their additional preparation time for this game. They last played on Friday, giving them two more days than QPR to prepare.
Regression to the Mean
I am a great believer in a mathematical term that can be applied to football (and all sports in fact), and this is the "Regression to the Mean".
Every team has an expected level of performance based on their physical, mental & technical abilities. Teams/players can over perform and under perform in any given match. When looking at a value bet we are trying to determine what attributing factors may enhance the chances of a team collectively performing above or below their expected level.
I feel the price on QPR has been shortened due to their over performance in recent home games along with the "need to win" due to their relegation battle. Furthermore, the under performance of Swansea has also contributed to the available prices.
Taking into consideration my belief that Swansea are the slightly superior side, I make QPR 6/4 favourites in my 100% tissue and will be taking the value in Swansea on the Asian Handicap.
Selection
2 points on Swansea +0.25 A.H @ 2.12 with 188bet
However, I do not perceive Swansea and QPR to be of the same ability, hence the upcoming selection.
QPR
Rangers have been much improved of late with victories over Arsenal and Liverpool in recent weeks at Loftus Road. However, they still remain in a relegation fight and have not kept a clean sheet since their 1-0 victory of Chelsea back in 2011. As a team they seem to have an inability to put together any sort of consistency.
They have only had two rest days since their trip to Old Trafford and will not have had sufficient preparation for the upcoming fixture.
Swansea
In contrast to QPR, Swansea have recently gone through a slump in form that has seen them lose their last three games. However, in all of these fixtures (including an away game at White Hart Lane) they had the majority of possession without being able to push on and get something from the game. This shows that despite the poor results their technical ability and footballing philosophy has not faltered. Danny Graham and Scott Sinclair return to the line up tonight to add some accuracy in front of goal that will complement the skills of Sigurdsson playing in the hole.
Also in the Swans favour is their additional preparation time for this game. They last played on Friday, giving them two more days than QPR to prepare.
Regression to the Mean
I am a great believer in a mathematical term that can be applied to football (and all sports in fact), and this is the "Regression to the Mean".
Every team has an expected level of performance based on their physical, mental & technical abilities. Teams/players can over perform and under perform in any given match. When looking at a value bet we are trying to determine what attributing factors may enhance the chances of a team collectively performing above or below their expected level.
I feel the price on QPR has been shortened due to their over performance in recent home games along with the "need to win" due to their relegation battle. Furthermore, the under performance of Swansea has also contributed to the available prices.
Taking into consideration my belief that Swansea are the slightly superior side, I make QPR 6/4 favourites in my 100% tissue and will be taking the value in Swansea on the Asian Handicap.
Selection
2 points on Swansea +0.25 A.H @ 2.12 with 188bet
Saturday, 24 March 2012
Chelsea vs Spurs
Apologies, it won't be an extensive post this week as I'm off out to a game today. However, I think this one is too good to ignore.
10/11 on a Chelsea win.
Both teams played midweek so no advantage either way there. Chelsea in good form, Spurs the opposite.
Selection
2 points on Cheslea win @10/11 Various Books
10/11 on a Chelsea win.
Both teams played midweek so no advantage either way there. Chelsea in good form, Spurs the opposite.
Selection
2 points on Cheslea win @10/11 Various Books
Wednesday, 21 March 2012
Manchester City vs Chelsea
A much improved Chelsea performance against Napoli saw the bankroll back to £1321.15 last week. We are entering the last quarter of the season and things are really starting to get interesting domestically and in Europe.
ROI for the blog currently stands at 36.45% and growth of 32.12%. This is slightly above expected, however, we are working with a select and small sample size.
This week we are again looking at Chelsea, as they line up against City at the Eastlands.
Manchester City
The Blues stuttered in their last league game, losing away to Swansea, as the home team managed a rare clean sheet against the title challengers. However, City's home form in the league currently reads P14 W14. They are formidable on their home turf and the expected return of Vincent Kompany to partner Kolo Toure at the back will be a welcome boost.
In the forward line, the movement of Aguero and Silva, complemented by the well timed runs of Yaya Toure has caused even the most stringent of defences problems this season. It is no surprise that they have averaged three goals at game at home in the league.
Chelsea
Although Chelsea have looked a rejuvenated side under the guidance of Di Matteo, I feel the test of an away game against City has come too early for them. The absence of Terry from their central defence is a critical factor. This will shift the burden of keeping out the City front line onto the shoulders of Luiz and Cahill. These are two players of undoubted talent, however, they do not look solid enough as a pairing against intelligent forward lines.
Couple these points with the fact Chelsea have only had two full days to prepare for this game after their FA Cup tie on Sunday and you begin to realise that the price about a City win is definite value.
They were 8/11 at home to Arsenal and won & 8/11 at home to Spurs and won (albeit with a last minute penalty). I do not perceive Chelsea to be stronger than either of those teams in their visit to the Eastlands.
Selection
3 Points on Man City Win @ 19/20 with VC Bet
The key for me in this game will be the announcement of Kompany in the City starting eleven. If he does not start I will reduce the stake by 2/3 to 1 point as Savic does look very indecisive at times.
As always, I welcome any comments, good luck with your value betting!
ROI for the blog currently stands at 36.45% and growth of 32.12%. This is slightly above expected, however, we are working with a select and small sample size.
This week we are again looking at Chelsea, as they line up against City at the Eastlands.
Manchester City
The Blues stuttered in their last league game, losing away to Swansea, as the home team managed a rare clean sheet against the title challengers. However, City's home form in the league currently reads P14 W14. They are formidable on their home turf and the expected return of Vincent Kompany to partner Kolo Toure at the back will be a welcome boost.
In the forward line, the movement of Aguero and Silva, complemented by the well timed runs of Yaya Toure has caused even the most stringent of defences problems this season. It is no surprise that they have averaged three goals at game at home in the league.
Chelsea
Although Chelsea have looked a rejuvenated side under the guidance of Di Matteo, I feel the test of an away game against City has come too early for them. The absence of Terry from their central defence is a critical factor. This will shift the burden of keeping out the City front line onto the shoulders of Luiz and Cahill. These are two players of undoubted talent, however, they do not look solid enough as a pairing against intelligent forward lines.
Couple these points with the fact Chelsea have only had two full days to prepare for this game after their FA Cup tie on Sunday and you begin to realise that the price about a City win is definite value.
They were 8/11 at home to Arsenal and won & 8/11 at home to Spurs and won (albeit with a last minute penalty). I do not perceive Chelsea to be stronger than either of those teams in their visit to the Eastlands.
Selection
3 Points on Man City Win @ 19/20 with VC Bet
The key for me in this game will be the announcement of Kompany in the City starting eleven. If he does not start I will reduce the stake by 2/3 to 1 point as Savic does look very indecisive at times.
As always, I welcome any comments, good luck with your value betting!
Wednesday, 14 March 2012
Chelsea vs Napoli
Tonight's match provides another opportunity to take advantage of a team that has been continually mispriced against it's more fashionable (and often English) opposition in this year's Champions League.
Napoli visit the Bridge having outplayed Chelsea in the first leg and hold a 3-1 lead. Their coach stated they will look to play a high line and get the away goal. Napoli's strength in this competition has been their ability to get goals and they are yet to draw a blank in the CL.
I have mentioned in at least two previous picks, the strength of their front three and this is something that will be evident again against a Chelsea back line that has shown fallibility this season.
Time constraints due to Cheltenham mean I will not be going into depth about Chelsea as we know a lot about them already. For my tissue I have Chelsea odds against at 5/4 as I do not see them winning this game anywhere 55%+ of the time like most books have them priced.
Selections
1.5 Points Napoli +1 AH @ 10/13 188bet
&
1.5 Points Napoli +.5 AH @ 17/13 188bet
Napoli visit the Bridge having outplayed Chelsea in the first leg and hold a 3-1 lead. Their coach stated they will look to play a high line and get the away goal. Napoli's strength in this competition has been their ability to get goals and they are yet to draw a blank in the CL.
I have mentioned in at least two previous picks, the strength of their front three and this is something that will be evident again against a Chelsea back line that has shown fallibility this season.
Time constraints due to Cheltenham mean I will not be going into depth about Chelsea as we know a lot about them already. For my tissue I have Chelsea odds against at 5/4 as I do not see them winning this game anywhere 55%+ of the time like most books have them priced.
Selections
1.5 Points Napoli +1 AH @ 10/13 188bet
&
1.5 Points Napoli +.5 AH @ 17/13 188bet
Saturday, 10 March 2012
Update
The APOEL result was pleasing and is good example of how you can extract value from what can be perceived as the "unfashionable team".
That takes the blog bankroll to £1381.15 going into Cheltenham week. No bet today but could be one for Monday's game at the Emirates.
Tuesday, 6 March 2012
APOEL vs LYON
Nice to have a winning return with the Swansea pick at the weekend, adding another £50 profit to the blog bankroll.
This weeks Champions League pick focuses on what could probably be described as the lesser of the four ties.
APOEL
They have been the surprise package of this year's competition and will not be leaving the competition without a fight. Their home record has been impressive, they beat Wisla Krakow in qualification and went on to record victories against Zenit and Porto at home in the group stages. They only suffered defeat to Shaktar after qualification to the knockout stages was secured.
If we imagine the scenario that will take place, 22,000 Cypriot watching the first team in a Champions League knockout phase from their island trying to overturn just a one goal deficit, this will provide a tremendous lift to an already stubborn team. This momentum and motivation along with their existing defensive resilience mean that APOEL are a more attractive option for the win than Lyon.
Lyon
They are in poor form domestically, especially away from home, and will be apprehensive with just a one goal lead. Lyon have the advantage of having kept a clean sheet in the first leg and an away goal will make it very difficult for APOEL. However, Lyon have failed to score in their last two domestic away games and will find it hard to break that run against a well drilled APOEL defensive unit.
Predictably, the game has been priced to expect a tight affair (Draw at 2/1 & Under 2.5 is 8/13 in most places). However, I think the teams are mispriced and there is value in taking APOEL at 6/5 Draw No Bet.
I would have the respective prices the other way round and feel the value in APOEL is too good to ignore.
Selection
2 points on APOEL @ 6/5 Draw No Bet with Various Books.
This weeks Champions League pick focuses on what could probably be described as the lesser of the four ties.
APOEL
They have been the surprise package of this year's competition and will not be leaving the competition without a fight. Their home record has been impressive, they beat Wisla Krakow in qualification and went on to record victories against Zenit and Porto at home in the group stages. They only suffered defeat to Shaktar after qualification to the knockout stages was secured.
If we imagine the scenario that will take place, 22,000 Cypriot watching the first team in a Champions League knockout phase from their island trying to overturn just a one goal deficit, this will provide a tremendous lift to an already stubborn team. This momentum and motivation along with their existing defensive resilience mean that APOEL are a more attractive option for the win than Lyon.
Lyon
They are in poor form domestically, especially away from home, and will be apprehensive with just a one goal lead. Lyon have the advantage of having kept a clean sheet in the first leg and an away goal will make it very difficult for APOEL. However, Lyon have failed to score in their last two domestic away games and will find it hard to break that run against a well drilled APOEL defensive unit.
Predictably, the game has been priced to expect a tight affair (Draw at 2/1 & Under 2.5 is 8/13 in most places). However, I think the teams are mispriced and there is value in taking APOEL at 6/5 Draw No Bet.
I would have the respective prices the other way round and feel the value in APOEL is too good to ignore.
Selection
2 points on APOEL @ 6/5 Draw No Bet with Various Books.
Friday, 2 March 2012
Wigan vs Swansea
My apologies for the hiatus. However, I am now back with regular posts.
I will start with what could surprise as an exciting game over at the DW Stadium on Saturday.
Wigan
They have only won one in their last six games (against fellow strugglers Bolton) but are unbeaten in their last three games. Martinez has chosen to adopt a 3-5-2 formation recently with focus on the wing backs. They have struggled for goals all season and although they move the ball well at times, a lack of precision up front has often let them down.
Swansea
I think their passing style will play into the hands of Swansea who have impressed all season with their possession football. They have played some of the top four in the league and come out of those games with greater possession. Admittedly, their away form has not been as good as their home form but the DW is not the most intimidating of grounds and I feel Rodgers will see this as a game where they can get all three points.
The return of Vorm in goal is a huge boost for Swansea as not only does he bring great goalkeeping skills but also injects an enormous amount of confidence in their back four.
An expansive game would not surprise me here and odds against for the overs could provide some value. However, I think a better bet is taking Swansea on the Asian Handicap.
Selection
2 points @ 5/4 Swansea +0 A.H at 188bet (no bet if Vorm does not start)
I will start with what could surprise as an exciting game over at the DW Stadium on Saturday.
Wigan
They have only won one in their last six games (against fellow strugglers Bolton) but are unbeaten in their last three games. Martinez has chosen to adopt a 3-5-2 formation recently with focus on the wing backs. They have struggled for goals all season and although they move the ball well at times, a lack of precision up front has often let them down.
Swansea
I think their passing style will play into the hands of Swansea who have impressed all season with their possession football. They have played some of the top four in the league and come out of those games with greater possession. Admittedly, their away form has not been as good as their home form but the DW is not the most intimidating of grounds and I feel Rodgers will see this as a game where they can get all three points.
The return of Vorm in goal is a huge boost for Swansea as not only does he bring great goalkeeping skills but also injects an enormous amount of confidence in their back four.
An expansive game would not surprise me here and odds against for the overs could provide some value. However, I think a better bet is taking Swansea on the Asian Handicap.
Selection
2 points @ 5/4 Swansea +0 A.H at 188bet (no bet if Vorm does not start)
Saturday, 21 January 2012
Super Sunday
Arsenal vs Man Utd
Always a great game to look forward to due to the long running rivalry between the two teams and managers.
Arsenal
Inconsistent would probably be the most appropriate adjective to describe the Gunners this season. A stuttering start that culminated with the infamous 8-2 defeat at Old Trafford followed closely by a sustanained unbeaten run. However, recently they have lost two games to lesser opposition from winning positions as well as drawing two home games they really should be winning.
I have mentioned previously the importance of Vermaelen to this Arsenal team and this applies equally to tomorrow's game. He is a major doubt and will face a late fitness test. Without him the Arsenal back line is shaky at best.
Not only is the defence weak but they will miss the influence of Arteta in midfield and the creativity of Gervinho out wide. Theo Walcott is struggling for goals and the continued reliance on Van Persie is a dynamic that cannot be successfully maintained.
Manchester United
Without impressing, United have done enough so far this season to be within three points of City. Their away form has been a vital factor in this and they have only conceded six on their travels (three of those were at St James recently).
I feel the attacking threat of Nani and Valencia down the flanks along with Rooney down the centre will cause enough problems for the frail Arsenal back line and they will be able to secure a slim margin victory in this game. Both wingers will relish coming up against Djourou and Miguel and it would not surprise me if either gets on the score sheet or provides the pivotal assist.
Coupled with the return of Smalling and Jones in defence, United should provide too much of an obstacle for Arsenal to overcome and there is definite value in the 13/8 available
Selection
2 points Man United win @ 13/8
Manchester City vs Tottenham
Starting with Spurs, they have struggled for goals recently as discussed in the "Swansea vs Spurs" thread. They will also be missing Adebayor due to the loan terms. However, it is primarily the change in the City camp that has created the value in the game.
The tactical performance of Mancini in City's last game against Wigan was a significant point from a betting perspective. During the latter stages of the game, at one nil up, Mancini adopted a defensive stance bringing on De Jong to close the game out. There is nothing wrong with this approach but it is notable due to the value opportunities it should provide. Putting this into perspective, this is the same City side that were averaging over three goals a game earlier in the season. They are now just seeing out games against a bottom of the league Wigan that can't buy a goal!
I can see this being a tense affair as both teams will be keen not to give anything away and if City get a goal Mancini will again look to protect their lead. Because of this, there is value to be found in the unders.
Selection
2 Points on Under 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 General
Always a great game to look forward to due to the long running rivalry between the two teams and managers.
Arsenal
Inconsistent would probably be the most appropriate adjective to describe the Gunners this season. A stuttering start that culminated with the infamous 8-2 defeat at Old Trafford followed closely by a sustanained unbeaten run. However, recently they have lost two games to lesser opposition from winning positions as well as drawing two home games they really should be winning.
I have mentioned previously the importance of Vermaelen to this Arsenal team and this applies equally to tomorrow's game. He is a major doubt and will face a late fitness test. Without him the Arsenal back line is shaky at best.
Not only is the defence weak but they will miss the influence of Arteta in midfield and the creativity of Gervinho out wide. Theo Walcott is struggling for goals and the continued reliance on Van Persie is a dynamic that cannot be successfully maintained.
Manchester United
Without impressing, United have done enough so far this season to be within three points of City. Their away form has been a vital factor in this and they have only conceded six on their travels (three of those were at St James recently).
I feel the attacking threat of Nani and Valencia down the flanks along with Rooney down the centre will cause enough problems for the frail Arsenal back line and they will be able to secure a slim margin victory in this game. Both wingers will relish coming up against Djourou and Miguel and it would not surprise me if either gets on the score sheet or provides the pivotal assist.
Coupled with the return of Smalling and Jones in defence, United should provide too much of an obstacle for Arsenal to overcome and there is definite value in the 13/8 available
Selection
2 points Man United win @ 13/8
Manchester City vs Tottenham
Starting with Spurs, they have struggled for goals recently as discussed in the "Swansea vs Spurs" thread. They will also be missing Adebayor due to the loan terms. However, it is primarily the change in the City camp that has created the value in the game.
The tactical performance of Mancini in City's last game against Wigan was a significant point from a betting perspective. During the latter stages of the game, at one nil up, Mancini adopted a defensive stance bringing on De Jong to close the game out. There is nothing wrong with this approach but it is notable due to the value opportunities it should provide. Putting this into perspective, this is the same City side that were averaging over three goals a game earlier in the season. They are now just seeing out games against a bottom of the league Wigan that can't buy a goal!
I can see this being a tense affair as both teams will be keen not to give anything away and if City get a goal Mancini will again look to protect their lead. Because of this, there is value to be found in the unders.
Selection
2 Points on Under 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 General
Friday, 20 January 2012
Update
Quick blog bankroll update this evening. Following the last two successful under 2.5 bets we are now at a running total of £1258.15.
Some of the more eagle eyed followers of the blog will notice my penchant for the unders bet. I think it is a bet that your average punter will often over look. Casual bettors will punt on events they want to watch and usually they would like an exciting game. Therefore, the overs is the more popular. Bookmakers are aware of these behavioural patterns and you can often extract value by taking the other side.
The Weekend
We have a stellar weekend of football to look forward to with a couple of key title battles on Sunday. I'll be dissecting both of those games and posting two value selections tomorrow.
Some of the more eagle eyed followers of the blog will notice my penchant for the unders bet. I think it is a bet that your average punter will often over look. Casual bettors will punt on events they want to watch and usually they would like an exciting game. Therefore, the overs is the more popular. Bookmakers are aware of these behavioural patterns and you can often extract value by taking the other side.
The Weekend
We have a stellar weekend of football to look forward to with a couple of key title battles on Sunday. I'll be dissecting both of those games and posting two value selections tomorrow.
Friday, 13 January 2012
Newcastle vs QPR
Newcastle United are coming off the back of an impressive 3-0 home win against Manchester United. They currently sit seventh in the table and are just four points off a Champions League spot after twenty games. The exploits of star striker Demba Ba has elevated them to the echelons of European hopefuls this season.
However, Ba has just departed for the African Nations along with key midfielder Cheik Tiote. They will also be missing club captain Stephen Taylor at centre back who is out injured for the remainder of the season. Therefore, Newcastle enter into this game missing what is arguably the spine of their team and three of their best players. As we saw with Manchester City in the midweek Carling Cup game, it is an almost impossible task for a team to maintain their highest performance levels whilst missing so many crucial players. This will be the challenge for Newcastle over the next few weeks, starting with the game on Sunday.
If we turn our attention to the visitors, QPR, we see a club whose fortunes may be about to turn. Situated near the foot of the table, just a solitary point above the relegation zone, the board decided to relieve Neil Warnock of his managerial duties and replace him with Mark Hughes. Whenever a team brings in a new manager with a reputation like Hughes, as punters, we must be aware of the “bounce factor” this can give to a team. Training is transformed, enthusiasm and confidence returns to the team and results inevitably improve. The recent appointment of Martin O’Neil at Sunderland is a perfect example of this. Unfortunately, it may not be plain sailing for Hughes from day one due to the absences in midfield of the suspended Joey Barton and Alejandro Faurlin through injury. However, QPR have shown a relative strength away from home winning more games on their travels than at Loftus Road this season. This shows us that the squad does not mind playing on the road and facing a weakened Newcastle team, they will be fully motivated to pick up their first points under Hughes’s stewardship.
I would have thought Hughes will adopt a cautious approach for his first game in charge due to the distinct lack of firepower up front. He will be aware that Newcastle will pose less of threat going forward without Ba and will be confident of defending well against the muted threat of the home team. This would be akin to the style he adopted when taking over at Blackburn Rovers, who were also battling relegation at the time of his arrival.
I think Newcastle are overpriced after we take into account their absentees. I also feel there is value in Under 2.5 goals due to the lack of firepower in both teams.
Selection
2 points on Under 2.5 Goals @ 13/14 with 188bet
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