QPR vs Swansea ( with some "Regression to the Mean")

I was intrigued when I saw the prices for this game go up. The majority of books have QPR as the 6/5 favourites. This price for any home team is the general price given when two teams are deemed to be of equal ability + home advantage for one, giving the 6/5 favouritism.

However, I do not perceive Swansea and QPR to be of the same ability, hence the upcoming selection.

QPR

Rangers have been much improved of late with victories over Arsenal and Liverpool in recent weeks at Loftus Road. However, they still remain in a relegation fight and have not kept a clean sheet since their 1-0 victory of Chelsea back in 2011. As a team they seem to have an inability to put together any sort of consistency.

They have only had two rest days since their trip to Old Trafford and will not have had sufficient preparation for the upcoming fixture.

Swansea

In contrast to QPR, Swansea have recently gone through a slump in form that has seen them lose their last three games. However, in all of these fixtures (including an away game at White Hart Lane) they had the majority of possession without being able to push on and get something from the game. This shows that despite the poor results their technical ability and footballing philosophy has not faltered. Danny Graham and Scott Sinclair return to the line up tonight to add some accuracy in front of goal that will complement the skills of Sigurdsson playing in the hole.

Also in the Swans favour is their additional preparation time for this game. They last played on Friday, giving them two more days than QPR to prepare.

Regression to the Mean

I am a great believer in a mathematical term that can be applied to football (and all sports in fact), and this is the "Regression to the Mean".

Every team has an expected level of performance based on their physical, mental & technical abilities. Teams/players can over perform and under perform in any given match. When looking at a value bet we are trying to determine what attributing factors may enhance the chances of a team collectively performing above or below their expected level.

I feel the price on QPR has been shortened due to their over performance in recent home games along with the "need to win" due to their relegation battle. Furthermore, the under performance of Swansea has also contributed to the available prices.

Taking into consideration my belief that Swansea are the slightly superior side, I make QPR 6/4 favourites in my 100% tissue and will be taking the value in Swansea on the Asian Handicap.

Selection

2 points on Swansea +0.25 A.H @ 2.12 with 188bet