I’ve looked as this game in depth because the initial book struck me as slightly mis-priced.
We profiled them two weeks ago and determined that Wigan’s performances were showing improvement despite struggling to score goals. Blackburn have also been improving without necessarily getting the results they warrant. Both managers are under pressure and this is a huge game for both teams even though we are only a quarter of the way through the season.
Blackburn
The return of Dann, Salgado and the possible fitness of Samba (who was expected to miss the game) is a big boost for the Blackburn team. They haven’t struggled for goals on the road. However, they have struggled at the back, conceding three at Norwich and three at Newcastle either side of their 1-1 draw at QPR. The performance against Norwich (until the last twenty minutes) and the home game against Chelsea suggest this is a team that can turn things round. Wigan
The Latics need to find a remedy to resolve their goalscoring problem, not to mention their shaky defending. Al Habsi is the only thing they really have to smile about at the back. I felt the Wolves game was a great chance for them to rectify their issues and get something from the game. They did generate chances, yet still couldn’t put the ball in the back of the net, except for the tap in from a saved penalty! Their defence was breached on a number of occassions and as discussed in our review, without some brilliant saves, it could have been 5+.
Both teams have shown improved performances under today’s circumstances (I.e. Wigan at home, Blackburn away). Blackburn’s ability to score and the return of two key defenders suggest to me that this will neutralise any home advantage Wigan may have at the DW.
Furthermore, under a poor run of results, teams can often experience more pressure at home as the crowd become anxious and vent their frustrations. Something that could work against the Wigan team tomorrow.
Selection
To extract the best value and lower the variance with this bet I will take:
2 points Blackburn +0 on the Asian Handicap at 19/16 with 188bet.
Friday, 18 November 2011
Friday, 11 November 2011
Estonia vs Ireland - Review
Nice result for the blog bankroll again. One point (£20) at 9/5 giving us £36 profit taking the running total to £1093.72.
The game didn't play out quite as expected due to the early goal and first half sending off. However, the corner traits of both teams played out almost identical to their previous home/away qualifiers.
Estonia won four corners to Ireland's one. Despite Estonia finishing with nine men and Ireland getting four goals they still could only muster one corner. I think this tells a solid story of their style and definitely a team to follow on the unders in the corner market.
Cheltenham
Fortunately, I'm off on a jaunt to Cheltenham for a day at the races tomorrow. No tips i'm afraid as I know enough about horse racing to know that my knowledge doesn't give me much of an edge just yet!!
Enjoy your weekend!
The game didn't play out quite as expected due to the early goal and first half sending off. However, the corner traits of both teams played out almost identical to their previous home/away qualifiers.
Estonia won four corners to Ireland's one. Despite Estonia finishing with nine men and Ireland getting four goals they still could only muster one corner. I think this tells a solid story of their style and definitely a team to follow on the unders in the corner market.
Cheltenham
Fortunately, I'm off on a jaunt to Cheltenham for a day at the races tomorrow. No tips i'm afraid as I know enough about horse racing to know that my knowledge doesn't give me much of an edge just yet!!
Enjoy your weekend!
Thursday, 10 November 2011
Euro 2012 Play Off - Estonia vs Ireland
After having a good look at this game to try and identify the best value bet of the tie I've landed on a market that I have started looking at a lot more recently.
Corners
The total corners market for this game looks very appealing. It will be a tense game with the Irish happy to play an organised 4-4-2. They are missing Kevin Doyle and Shane Long, so that just leaves Robbie Keane as a first choice striker. He will be partnered by either Walters or Cox.
Furthermore, Trappatoni has developed a very steady defensive unit and he will no doubt be looking to avoid defeat in Tallin rather than go all guns blazing for the away win.
With respect to the corners, in Ireland's last 3 away game qualifiers (excluding Andorra) they have only managed to get 3,2 and 1 corners respectively. This shows that their tactics away from home dictate a below average corner count.
Estonia, in their last 4 qualifying home games have achieved 4, 3,8, 3. Again, even including the 8 count they still have a slightly below average corner count.
Estonia are in their first playoffs and will not want the tie to be over after the first leg. I can see this being a cagey affair as is the first leg of many vital two legged ties.
Selection
Under 10 corners is the usual line and the majority of bookies have this around evens or slightly odds against. However, I think it is well worth chancing the line of Under 9 at the increased price of 9/5 given the context of the game
This is a good bet to trade out in play in the right scenario. For example, if after a tense 1st half and low corner count, Ireland then grab an away goal and lead 0-1 going into, say, the 70th Minute, look to trade out. As the Estonians chase the game it will likely inflate the corner count to a greater total than it would have been if it was still 0-0.
One to watch as the game develops.
Selection = 1 point on Under 9 corners at 9/5 .
Corners
The total corners market for this game looks very appealing. It will be a tense game with the Irish happy to play an organised 4-4-2. They are missing Kevin Doyle and Shane Long, so that just leaves Robbie Keane as a first choice striker. He will be partnered by either Walters or Cox.
Furthermore, Trappatoni has developed a very steady defensive unit and he will no doubt be looking to avoid defeat in Tallin rather than go all guns blazing for the away win.
With respect to the corners, in Ireland's last 3 away game qualifiers (excluding Andorra) they have only managed to get 3,2 and 1 corners respectively. This shows that their tactics away from home dictate a below average corner count.
Estonia, in their last 4 qualifying home games have achieved 4, 3,8, 3. Again, even including the 8 count they still have a slightly below average corner count.
Estonia are in their first playoffs and will not want the tie to be over after the first leg. I can see this being a cagey affair as is the first leg of many vital two legged ties.
Selection
Under 10 corners is the usual line and the majority of bookies have this around evens or slightly odds against. However, I think it is well worth chancing the line of Under 9 at the increased price of 9/5 given the context of the game
This is a good bet to trade out in play in the right scenario. For example, if after a tense 1st half and low corner count, Ireland then grab an away goal and lead 0-1 going into, say, the 70th Minute, look to trade out. As the Estonians chase the game it will likely inflate the corner count to a greater total than it would have been if it was still 0-0.
One to watch as the game develops.
Selection = 1 point on Under 9 corners at 9/5 .
Wednesday, 9 November 2011
What exactly do we mean by “Value”
It occurred to me after positing yesterday’s post regarding the Rugby League bet, that it may be useful to define what we mean by a value bet.
Value (or Expected Value aka EV)
This is speculating on an event where the odds signify a greater return than the expected probability of that event occurring. This is something that all punters should be looking for when placing a bet.
Example - Deal or No Deal
To break that definition down for you, let us take an example from the TV , "Deal or No Deal".
This exact show aired over a month ago and the scenario was as follows:
The contestant had dealt at £20,000. Noel Edmonds then played through the game as they normally do and when they got to the last two remaining boxes the “Banker” offered the contestant the “Bankers Gamble“.
The two boxes remaining were 50p and £100,000.
This meant that the contestant could risk his £20,000 to win £100,000 or go home with nothing (well, 50p!).
With two boxes, the gamble itself is an Evens chance (50% or 1 in 2). However, the Banker is offering the contestant 4/1 - I.e. risking £20,000 @ 4/1 = £100,000 total returns (which is usually a 20% chance or 1 in 5).
So, to summarise where we are now at, the contestant is getting 4/1 for an Evens bet.
Big value I‘m sure you will agree! But, why is it big value and what does this actually mean??
Expected Value
Let us say that the contestant, for hypothetical purposes, has the choice of this exact gamble ten consecutive times. If he deals ten out of ten times (takes the £20,000 he already has) then he would win £200,000 (or £20,000 per go on average).
However, if he were to gamble, he would win £100,000 five times and win nothing five times. Over ten goes he would win £500,000 (or £50,000 per go on average).
Now lets compare the two outcomes. By gambling he will average £50,000 per go and dealing will give him £20,000 per go.
I.e. £50,000 - £20,000 = +£30,000 difference.
Therefore, if we say that the contestant taking the money is +£0 EV (expected value), then the contestant’s EV for gambling in this scenario is +£30,000.
To summarise, over ten goes the contestant would have been £300,000 better off if he had gambled instead of taking the money, as he chose to do.
I understand you only get one go on Deal or No Deal!! So, I won’t hold it against this contestant that he passed up a huge +EV bet!
However, in our trading and betting world we have endless opportunities to extract value like this. That is why you should be looking out for opportunities like the rugby league value bet posted yesterday.
Furthermore, you must never be placing a bet if the odds are shorter than you feel they should be!
Value (or Expected Value aka EV)
This is speculating on an event where the odds signify a greater return than the expected probability of that event occurring. This is something that all punters should be looking for when placing a bet.
Example - Deal or No Deal
To break that definition down for you, let us take an example from the TV , "Deal or No Deal".
This exact show aired over a month ago and the scenario was as follows:
The contestant had dealt at £20,000. Noel Edmonds then played through the game as they normally do and when they got to the last two remaining boxes the “Banker” offered the contestant the “Bankers Gamble“.
The two boxes remaining were 50p and £100,000.
This meant that the contestant could risk his £20,000 to win £100,000 or go home with nothing (well, 50p!).
With two boxes, the gamble itself is an Evens chance (50% or 1 in 2). However, the Banker is offering the contestant 4/1 - I.e. risking £20,000 @ 4/1 = £100,000 total returns (which is usually a 20% chance or 1 in 5).
So, to summarise where we are now at, the contestant is getting 4/1 for an Evens bet.
Big value I‘m sure you will agree! But, why is it big value and what does this actually mean??
Expected Value
Let us say that the contestant, for hypothetical purposes, has the choice of this exact gamble ten consecutive times. If he deals ten out of ten times (takes the £20,000 he already has) then he would win £200,000 (or £20,000 per go on average).
However, if he were to gamble, he would win £100,000 five times and win nothing five times. Over ten goes he would win £500,000 (or £50,000 per go on average).
Now lets compare the two outcomes. By gambling he will average £50,000 per go and dealing will give him £20,000 per go.
I.e. £50,000 - £20,000 = +£30,000 difference.
Therefore, if we say that the contestant taking the money is +£0 EV (expected value), then the contestant’s EV for gambling in this scenario is +£30,000.
To summarise, over ten goes the contestant would have been £300,000 better off if he had gambled instead of taking the money, as he chose to do.
I understand you only get one go on Deal or No Deal!! So, I won’t hold it against this contestant that he passed up a huge +EV bet!
However, in our trading and betting world we have endless opportunities to extract value like this. That is why you should be looking out for opportunities like the rugby league value bet posted yesterday.
Furthermore, you must never be placing a bet if the odds are shorter than you feel they should be!
Tuesday, 8 November 2011
Generating Value
A nice example has arisen today whereby anyone can generate a nice bit of value without any leg work!
Here is how it works:
Event = Wales vs Australia in the Four Nations Rugby League (12/11/2011)
Market = Match Handicap
There are some early lines available with a handful of bookmakers which include Wales +54 @ 10/11 with William Hill and Australia -48 @ 10/11 with Sky Bet.
We are going to place a 5 point bet on both selections which will leave us with the following scenarios and outcomes.
1) Australia win by more than 54 points = Skybet returns 4.55 pt profits. William Hill loss is 5pt. Net loss .45pts.
2) Australia win by 48 points or less = Skybet loss 5pts. William Hill returns 4.55 pt profit. Net loss .45pt
3) Australia win by 49-53 points inclusive = Skybet returns 4.55pts. William Hill returns 4.55pt. Net Win = 9.10pts.
Therefore, we are effectively getting 19/1 on Australia winning by 49-53 points.
The four point margins in the "Winning Margin" market around that region are priced at 5/1 & 11/2.
This means we are getting a huge 19/1 on a 5/1 shot (risking .45 to win 9.1). Huge value by anyone's standards!
These scenarios do crop up from time to time when prices are first released. When Sunday comes around I would expect that the handicap will be 50-52 across the board.
Here is how it works:
Event = Wales vs Australia in the Four Nations Rugby League (12/11/2011)
Market = Match Handicap
There are some early lines available with a handful of bookmakers which include Wales +54 @ 10/11 with William Hill and Australia -48 @ 10/11 with Sky Bet.
We are going to place a 5 point bet on both selections which will leave us with the following scenarios and outcomes.
1) Australia win by more than 54 points = Skybet returns 4.55 pt profits. William Hill loss is 5pt. Net loss .45pts.
2) Australia win by 48 points or less = Skybet loss 5pts. William Hill returns 4.55 pt profit. Net loss .45pt
3) Australia win by 49-53 points inclusive = Skybet returns 4.55pts. William Hill returns 4.55pt. Net Win = 9.10pts.
Therefore, we are effectively getting 19/1 on Australia winning by 49-53 points.
The four point margins in the "Winning Margin" market around that region are priced at 5/1 & 11/2.
This means we are getting a huge 19/1 on a 5/1 shot (risking .45 to win 9.1). Huge value by anyone's standards!
These scenarios do crop up from time to time when prices are first released. When Sunday comes around I would expect that the handicap will be 50-52 across the board.
Monday, 7 November 2011
Selection Review
Firstly, the 4 points placed on the weekend's successful selection at 10/11 takes the blog bankroll to £1057.72.
The game went pretty much as expected. Poor defending was evident in both teams and based on that display it is no surprise they are both battling in the bottom half of the table. Wigan were by far the more wasteful in front of goal with 6 of their 13 attempts being off target. Rodallega guilty of the worst miss when through on goal.
Wolves were more clinical going forward and hit the target 12 out of 13 times. Al Habsi performed a couple of miracle saves and it could have been 4 or 5-1 without his acrobatics. However, the Wolves defence was shown up once again. I get the sense this season that they miss a player with the characteristics of Mancienne to provide that additional mobility and tackling in front of the back four. With Karl Henry as the main protector, he is a dedicated, combative midfielder but I think he lacks the required mobility and technique to be thoroughly effective in the Premier League.
In respect to future value bets involving either team, Wigan host Blackburn when the Premier League fixtures return and Both Teams to Score is currently best price 7/10 so no real value there yet. The over/under is at 10/11 both sides. I would have the over priced up as the favourite, so I will keep an eye on this market.
Wolves visit Goodison Park and I think they will struggle. Everton have put in two strong performances against Manchester United and then Newcastle away. My initial thought at this early stage is that Everton could win to nil. Both Teams to Score - No, is best price 6/7.
We have the Euro 2012 Play offs and International Friendlies this weekend. The dynamic of the two legged play off can throw up some interesting opportunities and possily some good value bets. I will hope to post about this later in the week.
The game went pretty much as expected. Poor defending was evident in both teams and based on that display it is no surprise they are both battling in the bottom half of the table. Wigan were by far the more wasteful in front of goal with 6 of their 13 attempts being off target. Rodallega guilty of the worst miss when through on goal.
Wolves were more clinical going forward and hit the target 12 out of 13 times. Al Habsi performed a couple of miracle saves and it could have been 4 or 5-1 without his acrobatics. However, the Wolves defence was shown up once again. I get the sense this season that they miss a player with the characteristics of Mancienne to provide that additional mobility and tackling in front of the back four. With Karl Henry as the main protector, he is a dedicated, combative midfielder but I think he lacks the required mobility and technique to be thoroughly effective in the Premier League.
In respect to future value bets involving either team, Wigan host Blackburn when the Premier League fixtures return and Both Teams to Score is currently best price 7/10 so no real value there yet. The over/under is at 10/11 both sides. I would have the over priced up as the favourite, so I will keep an eye on this market.
Wolves visit Goodison Park and I think they will struggle. Everton have put in two strong performances against Manchester United and then Newcastle away. My initial thought at this early stage is that Everton could win to nil. Both Teams to Score - No, is best price 6/7.
We have the Euro 2012 Play offs and International Friendlies this weekend. The dynamic of the two legged play off can throw up some interesting opportunities and possily some good value bets. I will hope to post about this later in the week.
Friday, 4 November 2011
Wolves vs Wigan
Going to focus on Sunday's crucial game in the bottom half of the table. Although we are only ten games into the season this is most definately the proverbial "six pointer" for both teams.
The market we are going to focus on is "Both Teams to Score". We have fantastic value in this market, primarily because of Wigan's poor goal scoring record away from home. However, this does not paint the whole picture.
Wolves
Starting with the home team and match favourites, Wolves. Only one clean sheet this season and they achieved that against Fulham way back in August. Playing at home in the league they have since conceded three against QPR, two against Swansea and two against Newcastle. It was their regular back five that played in two of those three games and the same five will line up again on Sunday.
Furthermore, Stephen Fletcher is likely to return on Sunday and this will mean Mick McCarthy (if choosing to start him) will revert to a more attack minded 4-4-2. Wolves have not struggled for goals without Fletcher in the last few weeks and will not struggle to score against bottom of the table Wigan. Also, the creativity of O'Hara coupled with his accurate set pieces will most definately create chances.
Wigan
Over to their opponents, Wigan. As we alluded to earlier, with only one goal in their away games this season, the price available reflects that statistic. However, their perfomances over the last couple of games have been much improved and against Fulham they were extremely unfortunate to not bag two or three goals.
Starting with their defence - Gary Caldwell, their first choice centre half and captain is suspended for the game. Therefore, Roberto Martinez will know that his team cannot sit back and hope to nick one. He is a football purist and will look to outplay Wolves with possession football.
Additionally, they actually do have some talented footballers going forward. Watson, Moses and Rodallega are likely to cause problems for an immobile Wolves defence.
Both teams will need to be going for the win seeing it as an opportunity to get three points against relegation rivals. After looking at the full picture behind this game I am more than happy to snap up the 10/11 on offer at Hills. I would have this priced 4/6 because there is enough evidence to suggest both teams would score at least 60% of the time, if not more.
Selection
4 points @ 10/11 Both Teams to Score
The market we are going to focus on is "Both Teams to Score". We have fantastic value in this market, primarily because of Wigan's poor goal scoring record away from home. However, this does not paint the whole picture.
Wolves
Starting with the home team and match favourites, Wolves. Only one clean sheet this season and they achieved that against Fulham way back in August. Playing at home in the league they have since conceded three against QPR, two against Swansea and two against Newcastle. It was their regular back five that played in two of those three games and the same five will line up again on Sunday.
Furthermore, Stephen Fletcher is likely to return on Sunday and this will mean Mick McCarthy (if choosing to start him) will revert to a more attack minded 4-4-2. Wolves have not struggled for goals without Fletcher in the last few weeks and will not struggle to score against bottom of the table Wigan. Also, the creativity of O'Hara coupled with his accurate set pieces will most definately create chances.
Wigan
Over to their opponents, Wigan. As we alluded to earlier, with only one goal in their away games this season, the price available reflects that statistic. However, their perfomances over the last couple of games have been much improved and against Fulham they were extremely unfortunate to not bag two or three goals.
Starting with their defence - Gary Caldwell, their first choice centre half and captain is suspended for the game. Therefore, Roberto Martinez will know that his team cannot sit back and hope to nick one. He is a football purist and will look to outplay Wolves with possession football.
Additionally, they actually do have some talented footballers going forward. Watson, Moses and Rodallega are likely to cause problems for an immobile Wolves defence.
Both teams will need to be going for the win seeing it as an opportunity to get three points against relegation rivals. After looking at the full picture behind this game I am more than happy to snap up the 10/11 on offer at Hills. I would have this priced 4/6 because there is enough evidence to suggest both teams would score at least 60% of the time, if not more.
Selection
4 points @ 10/11 Both Teams to Score
Tuesday, 1 November 2011
Basic Strategy & Approach
No picks this evening. I thought it would be a good opportunity to give a bit more insight into some of the methodology I use in identifying what is more likely to happen in a specific game and how this leads to the value picks.
Last night's Stoke vs Newcastle match was an ideal example for the approach that I take. It is through a combination of Quantitative (aka statistical data) and Qualitative (aka game strategy, theory and insight) research that I derive a tissue for said market (we will cover this in greater detail in later posts) and identify value.
It may transpire that the outcome i personally feel to be more likely is actually priced about right (or shorter). This will mean no bet as there no effective value.
To go back to last night's match, let us use the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market as the example.
We will start, as you always should, by analysing the favourites. The basic statistics for Stoke and their home form were as follows - only five goals conceded in their last ten league home games, five clean sheets and unbeaten at home this season.
The conclusion from using the basic statistics alone is that they are hard to break down and are unlikely to concede many goals. Furthermore, they have yet to score greater than two goals in a league game this season. Therefore, the stats suggest a low scoring game from a Stoke perspective.
Coincedentally, this perception seemed to be the general consensus on all of the betting forums I viewed leading upto the game.
If we turn our focus to Newcastle, they had kept 4 clean sheets in the league prior to the game and themselves, had only scored over two goals in a league game once, against lowly Blackburn. Although still unbeaten, they had fought out some low scoring draws and grinded some one goal margin victories.
Now, we must look beneath the statistics and see what was happening within each squad.
Stoke have struggled every week that they have played both a midweek and a weekend game. Recently suffering a 4-0 defeat to Sunderland. This type of sympton is typical of a team playing their first season in Europe and adapting to additional fixtures and travel.
Couple that with the improving confidence of an unbeaten Newcastle with a midfield that matched, if not bettered Spurs when they recently met, providing ammunition to the improving Demba Ba, led me to suggest that this game could equally if not moreso, be an "Overs" result than an "Unders" if Newcastle were able to get on top.
If you can begin to take your analysis to a second/third or even fourth dimension, this will separate you from the average punter who takes the fixture at face value from basic knowledge and punts accordingly.
My tissue had the market at Even money both sides because you cannot completely disregard the statistics. I would have wanted slightly bigger than the 11/10 that was about for the overs, but I would never be placing or trading the unders at 4/6 in a match that had the dynamics I outlined.
Last night's Stoke vs Newcastle match was an ideal example for the approach that I take. It is through a combination of Quantitative (aka statistical data) and Qualitative (aka game strategy, theory and insight) research that I derive a tissue for said market (we will cover this in greater detail in later posts) and identify value.
It may transpire that the outcome i personally feel to be more likely is actually priced about right (or shorter). This will mean no bet as there no effective value.
To go back to last night's match, let us use the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market as the example.
We will start, as you always should, by analysing the favourites. The basic statistics for Stoke and their home form were as follows - only five goals conceded in their last ten league home games, five clean sheets and unbeaten at home this season.
The conclusion from using the basic statistics alone is that they are hard to break down and are unlikely to concede many goals. Furthermore, they have yet to score greater than two goals in a league game this season. Therefore, the stats suggest a low scoring game from a Stoke perspective.
Coincedentally, this perception seemed to be the general consensus on all of the betting forums I viewed leading upto the game.
If we turn our focus to Newcastle, they had kept 4 clean sheets in the league prior to the game and themselves, had only scored over two goals in a league game once, against lowly Blackburn. Although still unbeaten, they had fought out some low scoring draws and grinded some one goal margin victories.
Now, we must look beneath the statistics and see what was happening within each squad.
Stoke have struggled every week that they have played both a midweek and a weekend game. Recently suffering a 4-0 defeat to Sunderland. This type of sympton is typical of a team playing their first season in Europe and adapting to additional fixtures and travel.
Couple that with the improving confidence of an unbeaten Newcastle with a midfield that matched, if not bettered Spurs when they recently met, providing ammunition to the improving Demba Ba, led me to suggest that this game could equally if not moreso, be an "Overs" result than an "Unders" if Newcastle were able to get on top.
If you can begin to take your analysis to a second/third or even fourth dimension, this will separate you from the average punter who takes the fixture at face value from basic knowledge and punts accordingly.
My tissue had the market at Even money both sides because you cannot completely disregard the statistics. I would have wanted slightly bigger than the 11/10 that was about for the overs, but I would never be placing or trading the unders at 4/6 in a match that had the dynamics I outlined.
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