After having a good look at this game to try and identify the best value bet of the tie I've landed on a market that I have started looking at a lot more recently.
Corners
The total corners market for this game looks very appealing. It will be a tense game with the Irish happy to play an organised 4-4-2. They are missing Kevin Doyle and Shane Long, so that just leaves Robbie Keane as a first choice striker. He will be partnered by either Walters or Cox.
Furthermore, Trappatoni has developed a very steady defensive unit and he will no doubt be looking to avoid defeat in Tallin rather than go all guns blazing for the away win.
With respect to the corners, in Ireland's last 3 away game qualifiers (excluding Andorra) they have only managed to get 3,2 and 1 corners respectively. This shows that their tactics away from home dictate a below average corner count.
Estonia, in their last 4 qualifying home games have achieved 4, 3,8, 3. Again, even including the 8 count they still have a slightly below average corner count.
Estonia are in their first playoffs and will not want the tie to be over after the first leg. I can see this being a cagey affair as is the first leg of many vital two legged ties.
Selection
Under 10 corners is the usual line and the majority of bookies have this around evens or slightly odds against. However, I think it is well worth chancing the line of Under 9 at the increased price of 9/5 given the context of the game
This is a good bet to trade out in play in the right scenario. For example, if after a tense 1st half and low corner count, Ireland then grab an away goal and lead 0-1 going into, say, the 70th Minute, look to trade out. As the Estonians chase the game it will likely inflate the corner count to a greater total than it would have been if it was still 0-0.
One to watch as the game develops.
Selection = 1 point on Under 9 corners at 9/5 .
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