Swansea vs Tottenham

Well, thanks to Mr Waley-Cohen, the bankroll is at £1151.72. Although, I am now on Long run for the Gold cup at a whopping 11/4. The extra two furlongs and Cheltenham track will definitely suit.

And now back to some Premiership action......

Swansea vs Tottenham Hotspur

On Saturday, the Liberty Stadium hosts third placed Tottenham as they take on home side Swansea City. This is an important clash for both teams as Spurs will be looking to continue their momentum in the title chase. Swansea meanwhile, will want to end a series of results that has seen them win just once in their last eight league games.

Swansea

Swansea City are likely to set up with a compact 4-5-1 where they can defend in numbers and attack with width.  This organised approach has been one of the key factors behind a record that has seen them concede just three goals in nine home games. Furthermore, the impressive form of their goalkeeper, Michael Vorm, has turned the Liberty Stadium into an unlikely fortress for the newly promoted Swansea. This season, only Manchester United have been able to take maximum points from a trip to the Liberty.

Swansea have gained admirers for their approach to the game and the possession football that they prefer to play. Conversely, this indirect approach allows opposing teams to effectively organise against Swansea defensively meaning they have often struggled for goals, scoring just one in their last three games.

Spurs

Tottenham, on the other hand, play an expansive version of the 4-5-1 formation. In their recent fixture against Norwich, Gareth Bale was encouraged to play in a more central role, resulting in an informal 4-3-3 set up.

Gareth Bale was an instant beneficiary of this new approach as he scored a brace, resulting in a 2-0 win for Spurs. However, before we get carried away with Spurs attacking capabilities, they have only scored five in their last four Premiership clashes.  They have missed the pace of Aaron Lennon and Jermaine Defoe in the forward line. Their absence leaves more emphasis on Bale, which no doubt resulted in him being handed the central role he thrived on against Norwich.

Additionally, Spurs have tightened up defensively in recent games, achieving four clean sheets in their last seven league matches.

If we consider the factors outlined above and envisage how the two sides will deal with their opponents, I can see it being a midfield battle where possession is key. It will not be a high scoring affair but I would have thought the quality of the Spurs midfield will edge the clash. Unfortunately, at a best price of 8/11, they don’t provide any significant value to beat a stubborn Swansea City side.

Selection

3 points on Under 2.5 goals @Evens with Stan James

King George VI Chase - Kempton

There is a slight deviation from the normal format with tomorrow's selection. Having looked over the Premiership fixtures there is no particular value that stands out. However, in the horse racing card there definately is.

Long Run & Kauto Star

Anyone following last season's National Hunt racing will know the capability of Long Run. More importantly, you will also know the capability of this horse at the Kempton track, destroying the field in last year's renewal of the race.

We are currently looking at a price of 2.46 on Betfair and a general 11/8 at the bookies. I have this as an inflated price predominantly due to the 8 length defeat it suffered at the hands of Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase.

However, having watched that race numerous times I feel it is deficit that can be overturned. Long Run tried to go toe to toe with Kauto Star down the back straight and it was following this he proceeded to hit a couple of fences. If Waley-Cohen can keep Long Run sat in behind Kauto as the latter leads the way like it prefers to do, then I feel Long Run will travel and jump a lot better throughout.

We also have to consider the age of Kauto and the impact of that huge Haydock run had on his fitness going into this race. He is a legend and will be remembered as such. However, to repeat another run like Haydock in quick succession is something I feel is now beyond him. Long Run is younger and will have definately come on for fitness after Haydock.

The Field

The rest of the field comprises three challengers that have never won at 3miles, a front runner in the shape of Nacarat, Diamond Harry and the outsider, Golan Way.

The statistical performance of horses that have never won at 3 miles allows us to confidently discount these challengers. They are no doubt quality horses in their own right with the main threat being in the shape of Master Minded. However, it is one thing to step up and win at 3m having never run that distance before. It is another question having him do it in a race as competitive as the King George. A place for Master Minded would not surprise me but a win would be something extraordinary.

My tissue has Long Run odds on at 4/5 and had it not rattled those fences at Haydock, allowing it to finish closer to if not beating Kauto in that race, i am confident the S.P would be around this mark.

Therefore, with that sort of value on offer it will be my Boxing Day selection.

Selection

Long Run - 2 point win @ 11/8 general

Recap - Everton vs Swansea

The game played out exactly as predicted. Swansea took a defensive stance while Everton enjoyed the majority of possession whilst failing to find the net more than once. A final score of 1-0 when you punt the unders is alway a satisfactory result.

Blog Bankroll is now at £1191.72 going into the Boxing Day fixtures. This is a 19.2% growth and a 38% R.O.I (25 points staked returning +9.5 points) since it's inception.

This is above what I would expect in the long term. If anyone is thinking of pure outright wagering, they should be happy with 10-15% ROI. However, this figure decreases if you begin to place large bets. Purely because the price that you can get for £xx,xxx's + decreases and subsequently, your margin is squeezed.

The legendary punter Harry Findlay has been quoted as saying any professional punter should be happy with 8% ROI.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/cheltenham/harry-stays-the-course-2098921.html is a good article to get an insight into the perception of value. I am very much in agreement with "Mr Findlay", hence the majority of my selections are slight odds on, as opposed to long shots.

Merry Christmas to you all - the Boxing Day selection will be up tomorrow.

Everton vs Swansea

After the Man city win the bankroll is back up to £1141.72 as we enter the festive sporting calendar.

Everton vs Swansea

Not too much explanation needed for this one as I cannot quite believe that 5/6 is available with 188bet. Everton have struggled for goals all season and it is likely that either Saha or Cahill will start from the bench as they are rested this evening.

Swansea seem to have two distinct styles away from home this season. When playing newly promoted/prospective relegation teams, they take it to them with an attack minded set up. However, when they line up against anyone else, they sit tight and look to snatch one goal. Often resulting in a credible 0-0 (see Anfield and St James Park).

I think Rodgers will take that same approach at Goodison Park and this will be a tight game. 5/6 is too big to ignore, especially as a large majority of the other firms go 4/5 - 8/11.

Selection

3 points on Under 2.5 goals at 5/6 with 188 bet.

Weekend Action

After the last two selections the blog bankroll is back down to £1081.72.

I wasn't displeased with the last two selections in retrospect. The injuries to the Ajax defence had a bigger impact than expected and the Braga sending off after sixteen minutes changed the dynamic of that game. However, Braga acquitted themselves admirably and saved the Asian Handicap pick by finding the equaliser!

Weekend Action

Big Bucks

Firstly, thoughts on the unbeaten Big Bucks, running at 2.30pm Ascot this afternoon. A slight drift this week from 1/4 to a general 30/100 or 1/3.

This is the first time he will be travelling right handed, some horses don't take to a certain direction over another. However, i'm sure the yard will have given him the necessary schooling. I won't be a backer or layer at the current price but I will certainly be watching with excitement. Big Bucks could well be remembered as one of the greatest horses of all time and is always a pleasure to watch him run.

Premier League

There are a few injuries and doubtful starters at this stage across a number of premiership matches. This heightens the importance of waiting before placing your bets.

However, there is one pick that I am confidently posting.

Man City vs Arsenal

This game arrives at an interesting time for both teams. Man City are coming off the back of their first defeat of the season as well as their exit from the Champions League. Arsenal on the other hand have found some form after their slow start and are currently nine games unbeaten.

Man City

The return of Micah Richards is a huge boost for City. Despite all their spending, Richards has been one of their most effective players and Mancini will welcome him back into the line up.

They started the game at Chelsea brightly and really should have had the result sewn up after thirty minutes. However, what surprised me most about the game was Mancini's approach after the sending off. Taking Aguero and then Silva out of the game surely signalled to his team that he wanting them to have no intention of nicking a goal on the break and to just see out the 1-1. With a Chelsea defence as susceptible to mistakes as it has been, I didnt think these substitutions were the most tactically sound.

Sunday's game will be a different story though. Back at the Etihad, City will look to immediately bounce back to winning ways by going on the offensive. Only the suspended Clichy keeps Mancini from putting out what could be described as a first eleven.

Arsenal

They have shown fantastic heart in recent weeks to grind out results that, at the start of the season, seemed like they were a world away.

The continued goalscoring form of Van Persie, the step up to "world class" statue of Alex Song and the return of Vermaelen has created a brilliant spine for Wenger to build upon. However, they come up against City without the use of a first team full back. This will drag Vermaelen out to left back and thus break up that spine on which their recent success has been built.

With this in mind, I struggle to see how Arsenal will be able to cope with the flowing attacks of City on their home turf.

I don't see a lot of value in the goal markets, but there is still value in the match result as i would have them nearer to 1/2.

Selection

4 point win Manchester City @ 3/4 at V.C

Brugge vs Braga

Quite a straight forward one tonight. The draw for this game is under priced at a general 7/4 and this creates value in the alternatively 1 x 2 prices.

Both teams would qualify if it is a draw or a Brugge win. However, Braga are through regardless, due to their superior record against Birmingham.

Therefore, Braga have nothing to lose by going for the victory in order to secure top spot in the group and avoid the Champions League teams & group winners. Their line up is full of first teamers and they are not going to Belgium to make up the numbers.

They also have a solid away record in Europe and are undefeated in three games on the road this season. Brugge lost to Birmingham at home and are definately beatable. They are showing solid form in their domestic league and do not concede many. However, the price for Braga is too big to ignore.

The 11/4 on offer for Braga is huge value for tonight's game.

Selection

1 point win Braga @ 11/4 & 2 point win Braga +0 @ 4/3 on the A.H both with 188bet


I will catch up with the blog bankroll tomorrow and post saturday's selections.

Happy punting!

Ajax vs Real Madrid

I was pleased with how the Stoke vs Kiev match played out with respect to our Under 2.5 selection. The 1-1 result was obviously one we were after and takes the blog bankroll to £1141.72. However, it was the manner of the match that was more pleasing.

Opta mentioned that there has only been one Europa league match this season that produced less shots at goal than this one. Proving that the analysis and subsequent selection were very close to the mark.

Ajax vs Real Madrid

My selection for this week's Champions League game is one which I feel has the most transparent dynamics.

Ajax

They sit second in the group three points ahead of third place Lyon. They need to avoid defeat tonight in order to qualify irrespective of Lyon's result. They have a number of defensive injuries but are a well organised unit under the guidance of De Boer and have kept four clean sheets out of their five Champions League matches so far this season.

With just a draw required I see no need for De Boer to change their conservative approach tonight.

Real Madrid

Mourinho's team have already qualified with a flawless five wins from five. Scoring sixteen and conceding just two goals in the process. They face Barcelona in La liga at the weekend and like Barcelona last night, Real Madrid will field a very changed starting eleven. However, unlike Barca, they will struggle to put four past their opponents.

You can currently get 5/4 on Under 2.5 goals with Victor Chandler or 2.28 if you wish to trade the selection on Betfair.

I would have the selection as slight odds on at around 8/11 in my 100% tissue (11/8 being the Over 2.5 obviously).

Selection

Therefore, as always we follow the value, 2 points win @ 5/4 on Under 2.5 goals

Stoke vs Dynamo Kiev

Looking at the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market for this match I was surprised to see that 4/5 was readily available for the Unders.

After taking a closer look I think there is definite value in this selection.

Stoke

They have been shipping goals for fun recently in the Premiership and a lot has been made of their poor form with only a recent win against Blckburn providing any points from their last five games. However, they have faired better in Europe. Currently they top Group E with 10 points and a draw will safely see them through to the next stage.

They will field a changed line up tonight and will adopt a steady strategy to the game. Tony Pulis has already stated their aim for this evening is to achieve qualification, thus erradicating the need to play anymore first team players than necessary in their final game away at Besiktas. With these factors in mind I do not see Stoke going out there to rack up the goals.

Dynamo Kiev

Kiev are a competent team as proved in their 1-1 draw when the teams last met. They still harbour hopes of qualification and will need to at least avoid defeat tonight. I think they will approach the game with a cautious set up much like their previous Europa League games. This will make them hard to break down and frustrating for the home team. Kiev are yet to go over 2.5 goals in their group games and have not scored more than one goal in a game. I cannot see this changing tonight.

The smallest price available is 13/20 for the unders and I make that to be the accurate price. Therefore, 4/5 is fantastic value that I am more than happy to take.

Selection

3 Points Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/5