There is a slight deviation from the normal format with tomorrow's selection. Having looked over the Premiership fixtures there is no particular value that stands out. However, in the horse racing card there definately is.
Long Run & Kauto Star
Anyone following last season's National Hunt racing will know the capability of Long Run. More importantly, you will also know the capability of this horse at the Kempton track, destroying the field in last year's renewal of the race.
We are currently looking at a price of 2.46 on Betfair and a general 11/8 at the bookies. I have this as an inflated price predominantly due to the 8 length defeat it suffered at the hands of Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase.
However, having watched that race numerous times I feel it is deficit that can be overturned. Long Run tried to go toe to toe with Kauto Star down the back straight and it was following this he proceeded to hit a couple of fences. If Waley-Cohen can keep Long Run sat in behind Kauto as the latter leads the way like it prefers to do, then I feel Long Run will travel and jump a lot better throughout.
We also have to consider the age of Kauto and the impact of that huge Haydock run had on his fitness going into this race. He is a legend and will be remembered as such. However, to repeat another run like Haydock in quick succession is something I feel is now beyond him. Long Run is younger and will have definately come on for fitness after Haydock.
The Field
The rest of the field comprises three challengers that have never won at 3miles, a front runner in the shape of Nacarat, Diamond Harry and the outsider, Golan Way.
The statistical performance of horses that have never won at 3 miles allows us to confidently discount these challengers. They are no doubt quality horses in their own right with the main threat being in the shape of Master Minded. However, it is one thing to step up and win at 3m having never run that distance before. It is another question having him do it in a race as competitive as the King George. A place for Master Minded would not surprise me but a win would be something extraordinary.
My tissue has Long Run odds on at 4/5 and had it not rattled those fences at Haydock, allowing it to finish closer to if not beating Kauto in that race, i am confident the S.P would be around this mark.
Therefore, with that sort of value on offer it will be my Boxing Day selection.
Selection
Long Run - 2 point win @ 11/8 general
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