Swansea vs Tottenham

Well, thanks to Mr Waley-Cohen, the bankroll is at £1151.72. Although, I am now on Long run for the Gold cup at a whopping 11/4. The extra two furlongs and Cheltenham track will definitely suit.

And now back to some Premiership action......

Swansea vs Tottenham Hotspur

On Saturday, the Liberty Stadium hosts third placed Tottenham as they take on home side Swansea City. This is an important clash for both teams as Spurs will be looking to continue their momentum in the title chase. Swansea meanwhile, will want to end a series of results that has seen them win just once in their last eight league games.

Swansea

Swansea City are likely to set up with a compact 4-5-1 where they can defend in numbers and attack with width.  This organised approach has been one of the key factors behind a record that has seen them concede just three goals in nine home games. Furthermore, the impressive form of their goalkeeper, Michael Vorm, has turned the Liberty Stadium into an unlikely fortress for the newly promoted Swansea. This season, only Manchester United have been able to take maximum points from a trip to the Liberty.

Swansea have gained admirers for their approach to the game and the possession football that they prefer to play. Conversely, this indirect approach allows opposing teams to effectively organise against Swansea defensively meaning they have often struggled for goals, scoring just one in their last three games.

Spurs

Tottenham, on the other hand, play an expansive version of the 4-5-1 formation. In their recent fixture against Norwich, Gareth Bale was encouraged to play in a more central role, resulting in an informal 4-3-3 set up.

Gareth Bale was an instant beneficiary of this new approach as he scored a brace, resulting in a 2-0 win for Spurs. However, before we get carried away with Spurs attacking capabilities, they have only scored five in their last four Premiership clashes.  They have missed the pace of Aaron Lennon and Jermaine Defoe in the forward line. Their absence leaves more emphasis on Bale, which no doubt resulted in him being handed the central role he thrived on against Norwich.

Additionally, Spurs have tightened up defensively in recent games, achieving four clean sheets in their last seven league matches.

If we consider the factors outlined above and envisage how the two sides will deal with their opponents, I can see it being a midfield battle where possession is key. It will not be a high scoring affair but I would have thought the quality of the Spurs midfield will edge the clash. Unfortunately, at a best price of 8/11, they don’t provide any significant value to beat a stubborn Swansea City side.

Selection

3 points on Under 2.5 goals @Evens with Stan James

King George VI Chase - Kempton

There is a slight deviation from the normal format with tomorrow's selection. Having looked over the Premiership fixtures there is no particular value that stands out. However, in the horse racing card there definately is.

Long Run & Kauto Star

Anyone following last season's National Hunt racing will know the capability of Long Run. More importantly, you will also know the capability of this horse at the Kempton track, destroying the field in last year's renewal of the race.

We are currently looking at a price of 2.46 on Betfair and a general 11/8 at the bookies. I have this as an inflated price predominantly due to the 8 length defeat it suffered at the hands of Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase.

However, having watched that race numerous times I feel it is deficit that can be overturned. Long Run tried to go toe to toe with Kauto Star down the back straight and it was following this he proceeded to hit a couple of fences. If Waley-Cohen can keep Long Run sat in behind Kauto as the latter leads the way like it prefers to do, then I feel Long Run will travel and jump a lot better throughout.

We also have to consider the age of Kauto and the impact of that huge Haydock run had on his fitness going into this race. He is a legend and will be remembered as such. However, to repeat another run like Haydock in quick succession is something I feel is now beyond him. Long Run is younger and will have definately come on for fitness after Haydock.

The Field

The rest of the field comprises three challengers that have never won at 3miles, a front runner in the shape of Nacarat, Diamond Harry and the outsider, Golan Way.

The statistical performance of horses that have never won at 3 miles allows us to confidently discount these challengers. They are no doubt quality horses in their own right with the main threat being in the shape of Master Minded. However, it is one thing to step up and win at 3m having never run that distance before. It is another question having him do it in a race as competitive as the King George. A place for Master Minded would not surprise me but a win would be something extraordinary.

My tissue has Long Run odds on at 4/5 and had it not rattled those fences at Haydock, allowing it to finish closer to if not beating Kauto in that race, i am confident the S.P would be around this mark.

Therefore, with that sort of value on offer it will be my Boxing Day selection.

Selection

Long Run - 2 point win @ 11/8 general

Recap - Everton vs Swansea

The game played out exactly as predicted. Swansea took a defensive stance while Everton enjoyed the majority of possession whilst failing to find the net more than once. A final score of 1-0 when you punt the unders is alway a satisfactory result.

Blog Bankroll is now at £1191.72 going into the Boxing Day fixtures. This is a 19.2% growth and a 38% R.O.I (25 points staked returning +9.5 points) since it's inception.

This is above what I would expect in the long term. If anyone is thinking of pure outright wagering, they should be happy with 10-15% ROI. However, this figure decreases if you begin to place large bets. Purely because the price that you can get for £xx,xxx's + decreases and subsequently, your margin is squeezed.

The legendary punter Harry Findlay has been quoted as saying any professional punter should be happy with 8% ROI.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/cheltenham/harry-stays-the-course-2098921.html is a good article to get an insight into the perception of value. I am very much in agreement with "Mr Findlay", hence the majority of my selections are slight odds on, as opposed to long shots.

Merry Christmas to you all - the Boxing Day selection will be up tomorrow.

Everton vs Swansea

After the Man city win the bankroll is back up to £1141.72 as we enter the festive sporting calendar.

Everton vs Swansea

Not too much explanation needed for this one as I cannot quite believe that 5/6 is available with 188bet. Everton have struggled for goals all season and it is likely that either Saha or Cahill will start from the bench as they are rested this evening.

Swansea seem to have two distinct styles away from home this season. When playing newly promoted/prospective relegation teams, they take it to them with an attack minded set up. However, when they line up against anyone else, they sit tight and look to snatch one goal. Often resulting in a credible 0-0 (see Anfield and St James Park).

I think Rodgers will take that same approach at Goodison Park and this will be a tight game. 5/6 is too big to ignore, especially as a large majority of the other firms go 4/5 - 8/11.

Selection

3 points on Under 2.5 goals at 5/6 with 188 bet.

Weekend Action

After the last two selections the blog bankroll is back down to £1081.72.

I wasn't displeased with the last two selections in retrospect. The injuries to the Ajax defence had a bigger impact than expected and the Braga sending off after sixteen minutes changed the dynamic of that game. However, Braga acquitted themselves admirably and saved the Asian Handicap pick by finding the equaliser!

Weekend Action

Big Bucks

Firstly, thoughts on the unbeaten Big Bucks, running at 2.30pm Ascot this afternoon. A slight drift this week from 1/4 to a general 30/100 or 1/3.

This is the first time he will be travelling right handed, some horses don't take to a certain direction over another. However, i'm sure the yard will have given him the necessary schooling. I won't be a backer or layer at the current price but I will certainly be watching with excitement. Big Bucks could well be remembered as one of the greatest horses of all time and is always a pleasure to watch him run.

Premier League

There are a few injuries and doubtful starters at this stage across a number of premiership matches. This heightens the importance of waiting before placing your bets.

However, there is one pick that I am confidently posting.

Man City vs Arsenal

This game arrives at an interesting time for both teams. Man City are coming off the back of their first defeat of the season as well as their exit from the Champions League. Arsenal on the other hand have found some form after their slow start and are currently nine games unbeaten.

Man City

The return of Micah Richards is a huge boost for City. Despite all their spending, Richards has been one of their most effective players and Mancini will welcome him back into the line up.

They started the game at Chelsea brightly and really should have had the result sewn up after thirty minutes. However, what surprised me most about the game was Mancini's approach after the sending off. Taking Aguero and then Silva out of the game surely signalled to his team that he wanting them to have no intention of nicking a goal on the break and to just see out the 1-1. With a Chelsea defence as susceptible to mistakes as it has been, I didnt think these substitutions were the most tactically sound.

Sunday's game will be a different story though. Back at the Etihad, City will look to immediately bounce back to winning ways by going on the offensive. Only the suspended Clichy keeps Mancini from putting out what could be described as a first eleven.

Arsenal

They have shown fantastic heart in recent weeks to grind out results that, at the start of the season, seemed like they were a world away.

The continued goalscoring form of Van Persie, the step up to "world class" statue of Alex Song and the return of Vermaelen has created a brilliant spine for Wenger to build upon. However, they come up against City without the use of a first team full back. This will drag Vermaelen out to left back and thus break up that spine on which their recent success has been built.

With this in mind, I struggle to see how Arsenal will be able to cope with the flowing attacks of City on their home turf.

I don't see a lot of value in the goal markets, but there is still value in the match result as i would have them nearer to 1/2.

Selection

4 point win Manchester City @ 3/4 at V.C

Brugge vs Braga

Quite a straight forward one tonight. The draw for this game is under priced at a general 7/4 and this creates value in the alternatively 1 x 2 prices.

Both teams would qualify if it is a draw or a Brugge win. However, Braga are through regardless, due to their superior record against Birmingham.

Therefore, Braga have nothing to lose by going for the victory in order to secure top spot in the group and avoid the Champions League teams & group winners. Their line up is full of first teamers and they are not going to Belgium to make up the numbers.

They also have a solid away record in Europe and are undefeated in three games on the road this season. Brugge lost to Birmingham at home and are definately beatable. They are showing solid form in their domestic league and do not concede many. However, the price for Braga is too big to ignore.

The 11/4 on offer for Braga is huge value for tonight's game.

Selection

1 point win Braga @ 11/4 & 2 point win Braga +0 @ 4/3 on the A.H both with 188bet


I will catch up with the blog bankroll tomorrow and post saturday's selections.

Happy punting!

Ajax vs Real Madrid

I was pleased with how the Stoke vs Kiev match played out with respect to our Under 2.5 selection. The 1-1 result was obviously one we were after and takes the blog bankroll to £1141.72. However, it was the manner of the match that was more pleasing.

Opta mentioned that there has only been one Europa league match this season that produced less shots at goal than this one. Proving that the analysis and subsequent selection were very close to the mark.

Ajax vs Real Madrid

My selection for this week's Champions League game is one which I feel has the most transparent dynamics.

Ajax

They sit second in the group three points ahead of third place Lyon. They need to avoid defeat tonight in order to qualify irrespective of Lyon's result. They have a number of defensive injuries but are a well organised unit under the guidance of De Boer and have kept four clean sheets out of their five Champions League matches so far this season.

With just a draw required I see no need for De Boer to change their conservative approach tonight.

Real Madrid

Mourinho's team have already qualified with a flawless five wins from five. Scoring sixteen and conceding just two goals in the process. They face Barcelona in La liga at the weekend and like Barcelona last night, Real Madrid will field a very changed starting eleven. However, unlike Barca, they will struggle to put four past their opponents.

You can currently get 5/4 on Under 2.5 goals with Victor Chandler or 2.28 if you wish to trade the selection on Betfair.

I would have the selection as slight odds on at around 8/11 in my 100% tissue (11/8 being the Over 2.5 obviously).

Selection

Therefore, as always we follow the value, 2 points win @ 5/4 on Under 2.5 goals

Stoke vs Dynamo Kiev

Looking at the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market for this match I was surprised to see that 4/5 was readily available for the Unders.

After taking a closer look I think there is definite value in this selection.

Stoke

They have been shipping goals for fun recently in the Premiership and a lot has been made of their poor form with only a recent win against Blckburn providing any points from their last five games. However, they have faired better in Europe. Currently they top Group E with 10 points and a draw will safely see them through to the next stage.

They will field a changed line up tonight and will adopt a steady strategy to the game. Tony Pulis has already stated their aim for this evening is to achieve qualification, thus erradicating the need to play anymore first team players than necessary in their final game away at Besiktas. With these factors in mind I do not see Stoke going out there to rack up the goals.

Dynamo Kiev

Kiev are a competent team as proved in their 1-1 draw when the teams last met. They still harbour hopes of qualification and will need to at least avoid defeat tonight. I think they will approach the game with a cautious set up much like their previous Europa League games. This will make them hard to break down and frustrating for the home team. Kiev are yet to go over 2.5 goals in their group games and have not scored more than one goal in a game. I cannot see this changing tonight.

The smallest price available is 13/20 for the unders and I make that to be the accurate price. Therefore, 4/5 is fantastic value that I am more than happy to take.

Selection

3 Points Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/5

Wigan vs. Blackburn

I’ve looked as this game in depth because the initial book struck me as slightly mis-priced.

We profiled them two weeks ago and determined that Wigan’s performances were showing improvement despite struggling to score goals. Blackburn have also been improving without necessarily getting the results they warrant. Both managers are under pressure and this is a huge game for both teams even though we are only a quarter of the way through the season.

Blackburn

The return of Dann, Salgado and the possible fitness of Samba (who was expected to miss the game) is a big boost for the Blackburn team. They haven’t struggled for goals on the road. However, they have struggled at the back, conceding three at Norwich and three at Newcastle either side of their 1-1 draw at QPR. The performance against Norwich (until the last twenty minutes) and the home game against Chelsea suggest this is a team that can turn things round. Wigan

The Latics need to find a remedy to resolve their goalscoring problem, not to mention their shaky defending. Al Habsi is the only thing they really have to smile about at the back. I felt the Wolves game was a great chance for them to rectify their issues and get something from the game. They did generate chances, yet still couldn’t put the ball in the back of the net, except for the tap in from a saved penalty! Their defence was breached on a number of occassions and as discussed in our review, without some brilliant saves, it could have been 5+.
　
　
Both teams have shown improved performances under today’s circumstances (I.e. Wigan at home, Blackburn away). Blackburn’s ability to score and the return of two key defenders suggest to me that this will neutralise any home advantage Wigan may have at the DW.

Furthermore, under a poor run of results, teams can often experience more pressure at home as the crowd become anxious and vent their frustrations. Something that could work against the Wigan team tomorrow.

Selection

To extract the best value and lower the variance with this bet I will take:

2 points Blackburn +0 on the Asian Handicap at 19/16 with 188bet.
　
　　

Estonia vs Ireland - Review

Nice result for the blog bankroll again. One point (£20) at 9/5 giving us £36 profit taking the running total to £1093.72.

The game didn't play out quite as expected due to the early goal and first half sending off. However, the corner traits of both teams played out almost identical to their previous home/away qualifiers.

Estonia won four corners to Ireland's one. Despite Estonia finishing with nine men and Ireland getting four goals they still could only muster one corner. I think this tells a solid story of their style and definitely a team to follow on the unders in the corner market.

Cheltenham

Fortunately, I'm off on a jaunt to Cheltenham for a day at the races tomorrow. No tips i'm afraid as I know enough about horse racing to know that my knowledge doesn't give me much of an edge just yet!!

Enjoy your weekend!

Euro 2012 Play Off - Estonia vs Ireland

After having a good look at this game to try and identify the best value bet of the tie I've landed on a market that I have started looking at a lot more recently.

Corners

The total corners market for this game looks very appealing. It will be a tense game with the Irish happy to play an organised 4-4-2. They are missing Kevin Doyle and Shane Long, so that just leaves Robbie Keane as a first choice striker. He will be partnered by either Walters or Cox.
Furthermore, Trappatoni has developed a very steady defensive unit and he will no doubt be looking to avoid defeat in Tallin rather than go all guns blazing for the away win.

With respect to the corners, in Ireland's last 3 away game qualifiers (excluding Andorra) they have only managed to get 3,2 and 1 corners respectively. This shows that their tactics away from home dictate a below average corner count.

Estonia, in their last 4 qualifying home games have achieved 4, 3,8, 3. Again, even including the 8 count they still have a slightly below average corner count.

Estonia are in their first playoffs and will not want the tie to be over after the first leg. I can see this being a cagey affair as is the first leg of many vital two legged ties.

Selection

Under 10 corners is the usual line and the majority of bookies have this around evens or slightly odds against. However, I think it is well worth chancing the line of Under 9 at the increased price of 9/5 given the context of the game

This is a good bet to trade out in play in the right scenario. For example, if after a tense 1st half and low corner count, Ireland then grab an away goal and lead 0-1 going into, say, the 70th Minute, look to trade out. As the Estonians chase the game it will likely inflate the corner count to a greater total than it would have been if it was still 0-0.

One to watch as the game develops.

Selection = 1 point on Under 9 corners at 9/5 .

What exactly do we mean by “Value”

It occurred to me after positing yesterday’s post regarding the Rugby League bet, that it may be useful to define what we mean by a value bet.

Value (or Expected Value aka EV)

This is speculating on an event where the odds signify a greater return than the expected probability of that event occurring. This is something that all punters should be looking for when placing a bet.

Example - Deal or No Deal

To break that definition down for you, let us take an example from the TV , "Deal or No Deal".

This exact show aired over a month ago and the scenario was as follows:

The contestant had dealt at £20,000. Noel Edmonds then played through the game as they normally do and when they got to the last two remaining boxes the “Banker” offered the contestant the “Bankers Gamble“.
The two boxes remaining were 50p and £100,000.

This meant that the contestant could risk his £20,000 to win £100,000 or go home with nothing (well, 50p!).
With two boxes, the gamble itself is an Evens chance (50% or 1 in 2). However, the Banker is offering the contestant 4/1 - I.e. risking £20,000 @ 4/1 = £100,000 total returns (which is usually a 20% chance or 1 in 5).

So, to summarise where we are now at, the contestant is getting 4/1 for an Evens bet.

Big value I‘m sure you will agree! But, why is it big value and what does this actually mean??

Expected Value

Let us say that the contestant, for hypothetical purposes, has the choice of this exact gamble ten consecutive times. If he deals ten out of ten times (takes the £20,000 he already has) then he would win £200,000 (or £20,000 per go on average).

However, if he were to gamble, he would win £100,000 five times and win nothing five times. Over ten goes he would win £500,000 (or £50,000 per go on average).
Now lets compare the two outcomes. By gambling he will average £50,000 per go and dealing will give him £20,000 per go.

I.e. £50,000 - £20,000 = +£30,000 difference.

Therefore, if we say that the contestant taking the money is +£0 EV (expected value), then the contestant’s EV for gambling in this scenario is +£30,000.

To summarise, over ten goes the contestant would have been £300,000 better off if he had gambled instead of taking the money, as he chose to do.

I understand you only get one go on Deal or No Deal!! So, I won’t hold it against this contestant that he passed up a huge +EV bet!

However, in our trading and betting world we have endless opportunities to extract value like this. That is why you should be looking out for opportunities like the rugby league value bet posted yesterday.
Furthermore, you must never be placing a bet if the odds are shorter than you feel they should be!

Generating Value

A nice example has arisen today whereby anyone can generate a nice bit of value without any leg work!

Here is how it works:

Event = Wales vs Australia in the Four Nations Rugby League (12/11/2011)

Market = Match Handicap

There are some early lines available with a handful of bookmakers which include Wales +54 @ 10/11 with William Hill and Australia -48 @ 10/11 with Sky Bet.

We are going to place a 5 point bet on both selections which will leave us with the following scenarios and outcomes.

1) Australia win by more than 54 points = Skybet returns 4.55 pt profits. William Hill loss is 5pt. Net loss .45pts.

2) Australia win by 48 points or less = Skybet loss 5pts. William Hill returns 4.55 pt profit. Net loss .45pt

3) Australia win by 49-53 points inclusive = Skybet returns 4.55pts. William Hill returns 4.55pt. Net Win = 9.10pts.

Therefore, we are effectively getting 19/1 on Australia winning by 49-53 points.

The four point margins in the "Winning Margin" market around that region are priced at 5/1 & 11/2.

This means we are getting a huge 19/1 on a 5/1 shot (risking .45 to win 9.1). Huge value by anyone's standards!

These scenarios do crop up from time to time when prices are first released. When Sunday comes around I would expect that the handicap will be 50-52 across the board.

Selection Review

Firstly, the 4 points placed on the weekend's successful selection at 10/11 takes the blog bankroll to £1057.72.

The game went pretty much as expected. Poor defending was evident in both teams and based on that display it is no surprise they are both battling in the bottom half of the table. Wigan were by far the more wasteful in front of goal with 6 of their 13 attempts being off target. Rodallega guilty of the worst miss when through on goal.

Wolves were more clinical going forward and hit the target 12 out of 13 times. Al Habsi performed a couple of miracle saves and it could have been 4 or 5-1 without his acrobatics. However, the Wolves defence was shown up once again. I get the sense this season that they miss a player with the characteristics of Mancienne to provide that additional mobility and tackling in front of the back four. With Karl Henry as the main protector, he is a dedicated, combative midfielder but I think he lacks the required mobility and technique to be thoroughly effective in the Premier League.

In respect to future value bets involving either team, Wigan host Blackburn when the Premier League fixtures return and Both Teams to Score is currently best price 7/10 so no real value there yet. The over/under is at 10/11 both sides. I would have the over priced up as the favourite, so I will keep an eye on this market.

Wolves visit Goodison Park and I think they will struggle. Everton have put in two strong performances against Manchester United and then Newcastle away. My initial thought at this early stage is that Everton could win to nil. Both Teams to Score - No, is best price 6/7.

We have the Euro 2012 Play offs and International Friendlies this weekend. The dynamic of the two legged play off can throw up some interesting opportunities and possily some good value bets. I will hope to post about this later in the week.

Wolves vs Wigan

Going to focus on Sunday's crucial game in the bottom half of the table. Although we are only ten games into the season this is most definately the proverbial "six pointer" for both teams.

The market we are going to focus on is "Both Teams to Score". We have fantastic value in this market, primarily because of Wigan's poor goal scoring record away from home. However, this does not paint the whole picture.

Wolves

Starting with the home team and match favourites, Wolves. Only one clean sheet this season and they achieved that against Fulham way back in August. Playing at home in the league they have since conceded three against QPR, two against Swansea and two against Newcastle. It was their regular back five that played in two of those three games and the same five will line up again on Sunday.

Furthermore, Stephen Fletcher is likely to return on Sunday and this will mean Mick McCarthy (if choosing to start him) will revert to a more attack minded 4-4-2. Wolves have not struggled for goals without Fletcher in the last few weeks and will not struggle to score against bottom of the table Wigan. Also, the creativity of O'Hara coupled with his accurate set pieces will most definately create chances.

Wigan

Over to their opponents, Wigan. As we alluded to earlier, with only one goal in their away games this season, the price available reflects that statistic. However, their perfomances over the last couple of games have been much improved and against Fulham they were extremely unfortunate to not bag two or three goals.

Starting with their defence - Gary Caldwell, their first choice centre half and captain is suspended for the game. Therefore, Roberto Martinez will know that his team cannot sit back and hope to nick one. He is a football purist and will look to outplay Wolves with possession football.

Additionally, they actually do have some talented footballers going forward. Watson, Moses and Rodallega are likely to cause problems for an immobile Wolves defence.

Both teams will need to be going for the win seeing it as an opportunity to get three points against relegation rivals. After looking at the full picture behind this game I am more than happy to snap up the 10/11 on offer at Hills. I would have this priced 4/6 because there is enough evidence to suggest both teams would score at least 60% of the time, if not more.

Selection

4 points @ 10/11 Both Teams to Score

Basic Strategy & Approach

No picks this evening. I thought it would be a good opportunity to give a bit more insight into some of the methodology I use in identifying what is more likely to happen in a specific game and how this leads to the value picks.

Last night's Stoke vs Newcastle match was an ideal example for the approach that I take. It is through a combination of Quantitative (aka statistical data) and Qualitative (aka game strategy, theory and insight) research that I derive a tissue for said market (we will cover this in greater detail in later posts) and identify value.

It may transpire that the outcome i personally feel to be more likely is actually priced about right (or shorter). This will mean no bet as there no effective value.

To go back to last night's match, let us use the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market as the example.

We will start, as you always should, by analysing the favourites. The basic statistics for Stoke and their home form were as follows - only five goals conceded in their last ten league home games, five clean sheets and unbeaten at home this season.

The conclusion from using the basic statistics alone is that they are hard to break down and are unlikely to concede many goals. Furthermore, they have yet to score greater than two goals in a league game this season. Therefore, the stats suggest a low scoring game from a Stoke perspective.

Coincedentally, this perception seemed to be the general consensus on all of the betting forums I viewed leading upto the game.

If we turn our focus to Newcastle, they had kept 4 clean sheets in the league prior to the game and themselves, had only scored over two goals in a league game once, against lowly Blackburn. Although still unbeaten, they had fought out some low scoring draws and grinded some one goal margin victories.

Now, we must look beneath the statistics and see what was happening within each squad.

Stoke have struggled every week that they have played both a midweek and a weekend game. Recently suffering a 4-0 defeat to Sunderland. This type of sympton is typical of a team playing their first season in Europe and adapting to additional fixtures and travel.

Couple that with the improving confidence of an unbeaten Newcastle with a midfield that matched, if not bettered Spurs when they recently met, providing ammunition to the improving Demba Ba, led me to suggest that this game could equally if not moreso, be an "Overs" result than an "Unders" if Newcastle were able to get on top. 

If you can begin to take your analysis to a second/third or even fourth dimension, this will separate you from the average punter who takes the fixture at face value from basic knowledge and punts accordingly.

My tissue had the market at Even money both sides because you cannot completely disregard the statistics. I would have wanted slightly bigger than the 11/10 that was about for the overs, but I would never be placing or trading the unders at 4/6 in a match that had the dynamics I outlined.

Stoke vs Newcastle

Well, what a fantastic game at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. It was an end to end affair as we thought it would be. The game could have gone either way as both defences were in such a charitable mood! However, it was Arsenal's forwards that were the more clinical. I was especially impressed with Theo Walcott and how he got the better of Ashley Cole. He then complimented his performance with that wonder goal.

Looking at the two selections that were put up for that game in the previous post, I am pleased the analysis of the style in which the game would play out was correct. I think think there was value in Chelsea and with some better finishing they could have been more than 2-1 up at half time and it would have been a long way back for Arsenal.

The game resulted in a £15 loss for the blog bankroll (£985).

Tonight's Premiership game is Stoke vs Newcastle.

The general thoughts from the prices available are that it will be a tight low scoring affair. However, with both teams having played midweek, performance levels could be below par. Both teams also have forwards that know where the goal is so it may be an "Over 2.5 goals" game.

That being said, I don't think there is any particular value in the prices available and will not be putting up a selection for this game.

With the Champions League this week there will be some better opportunities that present themselves.

This leads us to a very important point about successful Sports Betting/Trading - you do not have to enter the market all of the time!

As the bettor, we have the huge advantage of choosing when to place a bet/trade and when to sit things out and not bet. This patient and selective approach is half of the battle when attempting to generate a profit from sporting events. By protecting your capital and only seeking out value opportunites, you will find profits easier to come by.

Chelsea vs Arsenal

The match that I am going to focus on from the Premier League fixtures on Saturday is the Chelsea vs Arsenal game. Traditionally a big game in terms of the title race, maybe not so this year because Arsenal are not genuine contenders. However, it will still be an exciting game to watch.

Let’s start with the managers. Villa Boas has been a breath of fresh air for the Premiership. I have enjoyed watching Chelsea this season and think their attacking approach will continue in today's game. Their forward line of three will probably contain Torres, Sturridge and Mata.

Wenger is also a footballing purist and has never been one to "park the bus" in his away games. It is likely Arsenal will line up with their 4-5-1, Van Persie leading the line flanked by Walcott and Gervinho.
The good form of RVP at the moment is unquestionable and his skill will cause the Chelsea centre backs problems. However, I think Cole and Boswinga will be able to handle the threat of Walcott and Gervinho respectively.

The probable midfield line ups seem closely matched in skill levels and physique. Song vs Ramires, Arteta vs Lampard and Meireles vs Ramsey, some interesting and closely fought match ups.

That leaves us with the Chelsea front three versus the Arsenal back line. At this stage it seems as though Djourou and Santos will start as full backs and Koscielny/Vermaelan and Mertesacker. Those two full backs can be liabilities for Arsenal and Chelsea will be looking to exploit this. If Vermaelan starts that is a huge plus for Arsenal because he will thrive against the style of Torres. However, with this a doubt i think Arsenal will be up against it tomorrow.

Recommendation = 3pt win Chelsea @ 7/10 and 3pt win Both teams to score @ 3/4

An Introduction

Hello to all you Sports Traders/Speculators/Bettors,

A brief introduction to get us started:

I've been involved in the industry of Sports Betting in some shape or form for nearly a decade now. Currently I am in-play trading, placing bets pre match and also doing some long term outrights (aka Futures for our U.S cousins).

I thought it was about time that I aired some of my insights in a public forum such as "blogger.com".  This has been coupled with me posting some selections over at http://www.olbg.com/ (for those that aren't already aware this is a great betting/tipping forum) under the pseudonym of "thevaluehunter" in the Football and Rugby sections.

The blog could well be an interesting read for beginners and experts alike. Naturally, I will be hoping to gain insights from any followers as well. The mutual circulation of knowledge is something that can benefit us all! There will be the occassional non-sport musing but the core of the blog will involve the evaluation of opportunities resulting in selections and recommendations.

For the sake of the blog I will be attributing a £1000 bankroll with a staking plan of 1-5 points (5 pt = £100). The staking plan will increase with each additional £1000 we reach with the roll!


Methodology

The betting/trading involved will encompass pretty much all Sports and "Specials" where I perceive there to be an element of value based on the overall price available on the exchanges or with the layers. I feel there is a common misconception with the "average punter" that the bookies generally get their prices bang on and that is why they are in business........

Lets put pay to that myth! Bookmakers prices are derived to generate a balanced book and will never diverge much from Betfair prices (as they will immediately get smashed with Arbers on that one price if it is a liquid market!). In todays price transparent world it is public perception (this is a loose term in its nature and will differ for each event. I.e. Man Utd vs Man City will have a different "Public" than the 7.30pm at Kempton) that determines price.

Therefore, if we can analyse an event with an accurate evaluation that is greater informed than the existing public perception, we can find value in said event!

Markets

I prefer to look at the highest level of sports for three reasons:

1) The more mainstream the sport, the broader the "public perception" that generates that price and therefore, the greater opportunity to find value. You will also see sportsmen and women performing to win (minimising the chances of betting on a fixed event!).

2) These markets are liquid (£millions traded in an event)! Liquidity is crucial when trading as you do not want to be worried about liquidity when you are wanting to trade in and out at a certain price.

3) To coin an overused phrase,  "information is power"! You can easily gather more statistical, qualitative and quantative information about a "Chelsea vs Arsenal" game than you can about "Peterhead vs East Fife" match. However, if you have inside information about the latter (or either games for that matter) then fantastic, get betting! But week to week the former is far more bettor friendly than the latter when doing your research.

And it is through these three pillars that led me to seeking out value based opportunities in high profile sporting events.

Tomorrow, we will take a look at the Premiership fixtures, F1 and X Factor to see what sort of value may lie in those events.