Generating Value

A nice example has arisen today whereby anyone can generate a nice bit of value without any leg work!

Here is how it works:

Event = Wales vs Australia in the Four Nations Rugby League (12/11/2011)

Market = Match Handicap

There are some early lines available with a handful of bookmakers which include Wales +54 @ 10/11 with William Hill and Australia -48 @ 10/11 with Sky Bet.

We are going to place a 5 point bet on both selections which will leave us with the following scenarios and outcomes.

1) Australia win by more than 54 points = Skybet returns 4.55 pt profits. William Hill loss is 5pt. Net loss .45pts.

2) Australia win by 48 points or less = Skybet loss 5pts. William Hill returns 4.55 pt profit. Net loss .45pt

3) Australia win by 49-53 points inclusive = Skybet returns 4.55pts. William Hill returns 4.55pt. Net Win = 9.10pts.

Therefore, we are effectively getting 19/1 on Australia winning by 49-53 points.

The four point margins in the "Winning Margin" market around that region are priced at 5/1 & 11/2.

This means we are getting a huge 19/1 on a 5/1 shot (risking .45 to win 9.1). Huge value by anyone's standards!

These scenarios do crop up from time to time when prices are first released. When Sunday comes around I would expect that the handicap will be 50-52 across the board.