Wigan vs. Blackburn

I’ve looked as this game in depth because the initial book struck me as slightly mis-priced.

We profiled them two weeks ago and determined that Wigan’s performances were showing improvement despite struggling to score goals. Blackburn have also been improving without necessarily getting the results they warrant. Both managers are under pressure and this is a huge game for both teams even though we are only a quarter of the way through the season.

Blackburn

The return of Dann, Salgado and the possible fitness of Samba (who was expected to miss the game) is a big boost for the Blackburn team. They haven’t struggled for goals on the road. However, they have struggled at the back, conceding three at Norwich and three at Newcastle either side of their 1-1 draw at QPR. The performance against Norwich (until the last twenty minutes) and the home game against Chelsea suggest this is a team that can turn things round. Wigan

The Latics need to find a remedy to resolve their goalscoring problem, not to mention their shaky defending. Al Habsi is the only thing they really have to smile about at the back. I felt the Wolves game was a great chance for them to rectify their issues and get something from the game. They did generate chances, yet still couldn’t put the ball in the back of the net, except for the tap in from a saved penalty! Their defence was breached on a number of occassions and as discussed in our review, without some brilliant saves, it could have been 5+.
　
　
Both teams have shown improved performances under today’s circumstances (I.e. Wigan at home, Blackburn away). Blackburn’s ability to score and the return of two key defenders suggest to me that this will neutralise any home advantage Wigan may have at the DW.

Furthermore, under a poor run of results, teams can often experience more pressure at home as the crowd become anxious and vent their frustrations. Something that could work against the Wigan team tomorrow.

Selection

To extract the best value and lower the variance with this bet I will take:

2 points Blackburn +0 on the Asian Handicap at 19/16 with 188bet.