APOEL vs LYON

Nice to have a winning return with the Swansea pick at the weekend, adding another £50 profit to the blog bankroll.

This weeks Champions League pick focuses on what could probably be described as the lesser of the four ties.

APOEL

They have been the surprise package of this year's competition and will not be leaving the competition without  a fight. Their home record has been impressive, they beat Wisla Krakow in qualification and went on to record victories against Zenit and Porto at home in the group stages. They only suffered defeat to Shaktar after qualification to the knockout stages was secured.

If we imagine the scenario that will take place, 22,000 Cypriot watching the first team in a Champions League knockout phase from their island trying to overturn just a one goal deficit, this will provide a tremendous lift to an already stubborn team. This momentum and motivation along with their existing defensive resilience mean that APOEL are a more attractive option for the win than Lyon.

Lyon

They are in poor form domestically, especially away from home, and will be apprehensive with just a one goal lead. Lyon have the advantage of having kept a clean sheet in the first leg and an away goal will make it very difficult for APOEL. However, Lyon have failed to score in their last two domestic away games and will find it hard to break that run against a well drilled APOEL defensive unit.

Predictably, the game has been priced to expect a tight affair (Draw at 2/1 & Under 2.5 is 8/13 in most places). However, I think the teams are mispriced and there is value in taking APOEL at 6/5 Draw No Bet.

I would have the respective prices the other way round and feel the value in APOEL is too good to ignore.

Selection

2 points on APOEL @ 6/5 Draw No Bet with Various Books.